Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the news of the nationwide online electricity prices in 16 provinces. Affected by this news, the market's expectation for the performance of power companies to stop losses has risen. However, relevant sources told the China Securities Journal that the current electricity price adjustment plan has not been fully implemented and is expected to be implemented in a few months. Under the situation that the adjustment of electricity price may bring coal prices up, it is still unpredictable whether the relevant power companies can benefit in the long run.
The plan will be introduced in the second half of the year.
Although the news of the NDRC's price adjustment has not been officially denied, and the price adjustment schemes implemented by different provinces and regions have also appeared in the newspapers, people familiar with the matter told the China Securities Journal that only 16 provinces in the provinces to adjust prices are currently starting each time in Shanxi. The electricity is raised by 2.6 points, and the plans of other provinces and regions are still in the preliminary preparation stage.
“The National Development and Reform Commission is asking local enterprises to report the losses of each family last year. After the summary, we will develop a detailed plan, which requires a process.†The person said that if the progress is smooth, it will be possible to introduce the price adjustment in the second half of the year. Program.
Analysts pointed out that although the price adjustment itself is a big plus for thermal power companies, given the uncertain timing of the full implementation of the electricity price adjustment policy, the market may be able to postpone the expectations of thermal power companies.
It is understood that this adjustment of the on-grid price is another step after the introduction of the coal "limit order", the state to reverse the general loss situation of power companies. Zhou Xiujie, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, believes that if the price and agreement redemption rate of key contract coals are maintained at the previous year's level, and the on-grid tariff adjustment, the policy goal of ending losses by the end of the year may be realized.
The unified upward adjustment of the 16 provinces and autonomous regions is the on-grid tariff of thermal power, but the industry has generally begun to care about whether the adjustment of the electricity price will be brought about with the implementation of the on-grid tariff adjustment policy.
In this regard, Zhou Xiujie believes that the adjustment of the on-grid price and not the sale of electricity prices is a policy consideration that needs to alleviate the current high CPI status. In the long run, the adjustment of sales price is the general trend. Once the upstream price increase of the industry is obvious and sustained, the downstream will inevitably carry out price diversion work, and the adjustment of the sales price will be waiting for opportunities. In the case of continuous increase in electricity consumption, price increases are also inevitable.
Founder Securities analysts also pointed out that raising the on-grid tariff is a short-term countermeasure to alleviate the continued losses of thermal power companies, and moderately raising the sales price and vigorously promoting the large-scale application of new energy power generation is the fundamental solution to the problem of coal power upside down.
However, the above-mentioned insiders told reporters that given the uncertainty of the impact of the adjustment of sales price on the current domestic inflation situation, there is currently no intention to adjust the sales price of residents and non-residents.
Coal prices will "swell up"
Although the price adjustment has a significant effect on the short-term performance of the power sector, many analysts said that in the long run, the semi-marketized coal price is hard to stop with the trend of electricity price rising. The rise in coal prices will partially offset the positive effects of electricity price adjustments.
Zhou Xiujie said that before the price increase, some thermal power companies tried to reduce coal consumption and generate less electricity, but the market demand for electricity continued to rise. Therefore, the adjustment of the electricity price will increase the power generation rate of the thermal power plant to a certain extent, thereby increasing the demand for thermal coal and further driving the coal price to rise. He also believes that the rise in coal prices is a long-term trend. Due to the loss of the thermal power industry, the elasticity of its price increase has been suppressed. At present, the international situation is turbulent, and the rising prices of freight and refined oil have brought a new round of momentum to the rise in coal prices.
Founder Securities believes that the adjustment of electricity prices is only to improve the profitability of the power plant and the temporary countermeasures of cash flow, and even does not involve the issue of coal price inversion. The second quarter is the traditional low season of thermal power, and the third quarter is the peak of electricity consumption. If the coal price in the third quarter is higher than the current one, the risk of cash flow breakage may occur in some regions, which will once again force the on-grid tariff to rise.
The plan will be introduced in the second half of the year.
Although the news of the NDRC's price adjustment has not been officially denied, and the price adjustment schemes implemented by different provinces and regions have also appeared in the newspapers, people familiar with the matter told the China Securities Journal that only 16 provinces in the provinces to adjust prices are currently starting each time in Shanxi. The electricity is raised by 2.6 points, and the plans of other provinces and regions are still in the preliminary preparation stage.
“The National Development and Reform Commission is asking local enterprises to report the losses of each family last year. After the summary, we will develop a detailed plan, which requires a process.†The person said that if the progress is smooth, it will be possible to introduce the price adjustment in the second half of the year. Program.
Analysts pointed out that although the price adjustment itself is a big plus for thermal power companies, given the uncertain timing of the full implementation of the electricity price adjustment policy, the market may be able to postpone the expectations of thermal power companies.
It is understood that this adjustment of the on-grid price is another step after the introduction of the coal "limit order", the state to reverse the general loss situation of power companies. Zhou Xiujie, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, believes that if the price and agreement redemption rate of key contract coals are maintained at the previous year's level, and the on-grid tariff adjustment, the policy goal of ending losses by the end of the year may be realized.
The unified upward adjustment of the 16 provinces and autonomous regions is the on-grid tariff of thermal power, but the industry has generally begun to care about whether the adjustment of the electricity price will be brought about with the implementation of the on-grid tariff adjustment policy.
In this regard, Zhou Xiujie believes that the adjustment of the on-grid price and not the sale of electricity prices is a policy consideration that needs to alleviate the current high CPI status. In the long run, the adjustment of sales price is the general trend. Once the upstream price increase of the industry is obvious and sustained, the downstream will inevitably carry out price diversion work, and the adjustment of the sales price will be waiting for opportunities. In the case of continuous increase in electricity consumption, price increases are also inevitable.
Founder Securities analysts also pointed out that raising the on-grid tariff is a short-term countermeasure to alleviate the continued losses of thermal power companies, and moderately raising the sales price and vigorously promoting the large-scale application of new energy power generation is the fundamental solution to the problem of coal power upside down.
However, the above-mentioned insiders told reporters that given the uncertainty of the impact of the adjustment of sales price on the current domestic inflation situation, there is currently no intention to adjust the sales price of residents and non-residents.
Coal prices will "swell up"
Although the price adjustment has a significant effect on the short-term performance of the power sector, many analysts said that in the long run, the semi-marketized coal price is hard to stop with the trend of electricity price rising. The rise in coal prices will partially offset the positive effects of electricity price adjustments.
Zhou Xiujie said that before the price increase, some thermal power companies tried to reduce coal consumption and generate less electricity, but the market demand for electricity continued to rise. Therefore, the adjustment of the electricity price will increase the power generation rate of the thermal power plant to a certain extent, thereby increasing the demand for thermal coal and further driving the coal price to rise. He also believes that the rise in coal prices is a long-term trend. Due to the loss of the thermal power industry, the elasticity of its price increase has been suppressed. At present, the international situation is turbulent, and the rising prices of freight and refined oil have brought a new round of momentum to the rise in coal prices.
Founder Securities believes that the adjustment of electricity prices is only to improve the profitability of the power plant and the temporary countermeasures of cash flow, and even does not involve the issue of coal price inversion. The second quarter is the traditional low season of thermal power, and the third quarter is the peak of electricity consumption. If the coal price in the third quarter is higher than the current one, the risk of cash flow breakage may occur in some regions, which will once again force the on-grid tariff to rise.
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