Among the more than 10 provinces that have published data, only Xinjiang’s growth rate is slightly higher. The GDP in the first quarter of this year is the same as the national GDP, and the year-on-year growth rate has generally declined. Beijing and Ningxia fell back to 6.3 and 9.2 percentage points respectively. Under the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to spur the tone structure, promote the model angle, and the heavy responsibility of suppressing inflation since last year, the GDP growth rate slowed in the beginning of this year is in line with expectations. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said recently that the overall operation of the national economy in the first quarter was good and continued to develop in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. However, as the CPI growth rate in the first quarter was as high as 5% exceeded expectations, some officials believe that the CPI trend for the whole year will be not high after the previous high. This means that the austerity policy will not be cancelled in a short period of time, and there are still signs of strengthening. Therefore, whether the economic growth rate will be further explored is still unknown. The growth rate is “one high, one low†and “one high and one lowâ€. This is the phenomenon that the “First Financial Daily†reporter found when he reviewed the published first quarter GDP data of more than 10 provinces. “High†means that the first quarter GDP of these provinces including Guangdong and Beijing is higher than the national level of 9.7% in the first quarter. The “low†is that the economic growth rate in these regions is lower than that in the same period last year. Yesterday, data from the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics showed that preliminary accounting, in the first quarter, Guangdong achieved a regional GDP of 1,054.974 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%. The growth rate in the first quarter of last year was 12.5%. According to data released by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics on the 20th, Beijing's GDP in the first quarter increased by 8.6% year-on-year. As the king of last year's provincial GDP growth rate (up 17.4% year-on-year), Tianjin's economic growth in the first quarter still tops the list of provinces that have already been announced. The data shows that in the first quarter, Tianjin's GDP reached 225.651 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 16.5% over the same period last year. “Tianjin’s ability to sustain development is stronger, and the economic growth rate during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will be very fast.†Chen Zongsheng, deputy secretary general of the Tianjin Municipal Government, said in an interview with this reporter. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, Tianjin is expected to achieve an average annual growth rate of 12%. Some experts predict that the actual growth rate of Tianjin may be between 14% and 18%. In addition to Tianjin, in the already announced regions, Fujian is focusing on accelerating Haixi construction and promoting leapfrog development. Its GDP growth rate in the first quarter ranked second in the published data provinces, at 14.5% (without national joint review). ). Xiamen's GDP growth rate in the first quarter was as high as 15.6%. At the same time, the central provinces continued to maintain a high growth momentum. For example, Hubei Province achieved a regional GDP of 359.236 billion yuan in the first quarter, which was 14.4% year-on-year. In the first quarter of Hunan Province, the regional GDP reached 364.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, and the growth rate of the seven consecutive quarters remained at more than 13%. Last year, Beijing successively launched the automobile and property market purchase restriction policies. Since the beginning of this year, the city has increased 83,000 vehicles, a decrease of 59.1% compared with last year. According to Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network data, as of April 16th, the volume of Beijing 期房 has been reduced by 40.5% year-on-year and the second-hand housing contract has been lowered by 36.6%. In March, the average transaction price of new homes in Beijing fell by 26.7% from the previous month, down 10.9% year-on-year. These regulatory results will inevitably be reflected in the GDP data. Shanxi, the alternate member of the “Trillion GDP City Clubâ€, achieved a total production value of 220.09 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, which was 12.8% higher than the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2010, the GDP growth rate was as high as 19.4%. In this regard, Guangdong Provincial Academy of Social Sciences researcher Cheng Jiansan analyzed this reporter's analysis. In the first quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate will decline compared with the same period of last year. On the one hand, the 4 trillion investment in 2009 will be played in 2010. Obvious results, especially in the first quarter of last year, the peak of GDP growth since 2008, investment-driven economic growth in various places, but this drive will gradually weaken after 2011. "From the policy tightening trend in the second half of last year to the tightening effect in the first quarter of this year, it will inevitably be reflected in the data, especially the slowdown in the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the slowdown in credit growth." Cheng Jiansan said. Inflation may cause the growth rate to fall again. Although the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year has declined, overall, it is better than the full-year economic growth forecast scheduled at the beginning of the year. Hubei expects GDP growth of 10% for the full year of 2011, but GDP increased by 14.4% in the first quarter. Beijing's annual GDP growth target for this year is expected to be 8%, actually reaching 8.6%. This year is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Changing the mode of development and adjusting the economic structure have become the main line of local policies. To this end, many provinces have lowered their economic growth in 2011, especially in the eastern region. Despite the catch-up in Jiangsu and Shandong, the first major economic province prefers to appropriately reduce the economic growth rate and accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading. Huang Huahua, governor of Guangdong Province, said at this year's "two sessions" that the traditional development model is difficult to sustain, and Guangdong can no longer follow the traditional model. As for the growth rate of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, Guangdong may be surpassed by other provinces. Huang Huahua believes that this is also a good thing. Cheng Jiansan believes that in the next three quarters, if the macro economy is further tightened in order to control inflation, then the price will be a further decline in economic growth, especially in the eastern region, which is also facing the pressure of industrial transformation. The actual operation is not so easy. In fact, with the gradual fading out of the national expansion of the housing package, the driving force of economic growth can be driven by policy-driven to market-driven, and become the key to whether the economy can turn to benign development.
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