1. Supply and demand relationship: According to the estimation data of CRU, in the first quarter of 2011, the output of refined copper in the world was 4.567 million tons, and the consumption was 4.5319 million tons, with an excess of 28,000 tons.
2, the United States market:
Early: The copper market in the U.S. fell, because buyers in the processing industry either stopped purchasing in the spot market or purchased copper scrap to meet their production needs. Spot trading is small, traders said the premium for the deal was 4-5.5 cents/lb. A person in the processing industry stated that his factory has tried to use scrap copper as raw material. This has been done for several months, although the quality of scrap copper cannot be guaranteed. Scrap copper dealers stated that their transactions were stable, especially scrap copper transactions from brass production plants.
Late: The spot market for March delivery in the US copper market was flat. Buyers in the processing industry did not intend to purchase. Most processing industry buyers have sufficient stocks because of the large number of orders placed under their 2011 annual orders. Some processing industry buyers continue to purchase scrap copper to meet demand and reduce the amount of refined copper purchases because of its high prices. Due to the sluggish market conditions, traders can only satisfy the buyer's flexibility in terms of delivery terms in order to make a deal, although this has a risk for traders. Some buyers still adopt the strategy of buying and using, for example, they will wait until the second half of the month is not enough to order, but there is also the risk of supply disruption.
3. Copper Concentrates: The China Copper Materials Joint Negotiation Group and BHP Billiton finalized the 2011 Copper Processing and Smelting Fees (TC/RC) Agreement to achieve the 77.0/7.70 copper processing smelting costs (TC/RC), that is, smelting per ton US$77, refined 7.7 cents per pound, up 66% from the 2010 base price.
4, the domestic market: Customs data show that in January China imported 245,600 tons of refined copper, an increase of 24.49%, imported copper alloy 2,167,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 59%, imports of copper 365 million tons, an increase of 8.11%, imported copper Concentrate 571 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%. Imports of 72,400 tons of copper, an increase of 12.6%. Exports of 23.19 million tons of refined copper, an increase of 679.27%, 26,800 tons of copper alloy exports, an increase of 8.37%, 145,100 tons of waste copper exports, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, exports of 46,200 tons of copper, an increase of 21.8%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's refined copper consumption in 2010 reached 7.92 million tons, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year.
Due to the recent volatility of copper prices, domestic people are more cautious, and everyone is paying close attention to market conditions because domestic spot prices are too high. At present, the average price of refined copper in China exceeds 70,000 yuan/t, which is far higher than the average price of 60,000 yuan/t in the fourth quarter of 2010. Domestic traders said that the import of Chile's copper premium is CFR 100-110 USD/t, and the previous period is 80-90 USD/t. The shortage is the main reason. After Chile experienced an earthquake and turmoil in Chile last year, the supply of the copper market was tight, so the minimum premium required by the supplier is now US$100/t. Traders currently have almost no spot import business. They are waiting for the price to fall. Platts reported that the premium for CFR China ports was 100-110 USD/t, and the previous period was 80-100 USD/t.
Yunnan Copper's electrolytic copper production capacity adds 100,000 tons, which makes its total production capacity reach approximately 700,000 tons.
5, the industry view: British hedge ** - Redkite said, LME copper prices can not be stabilized above the 10,000 mark. **Manager Scott Hobart said that prices should at least be lowered to around 7500-8000 to attract Chinese consumers back to the market. At present, copper stocks at various exchanges around the world are about 1 million tons, and there is no shortage of supply. According to Cubralco, which sells copper products in the United Kingdom, as the LME copper price continues to hit a record high, the pace of substitution has accelerated. However, Aurubis, the largest copper producer in Europe, said that copper prices have reached a record high and China's demand has been affected. However, demand for copper in Europe continues to show growth.
The French bank Natixis believes that the global supply shortage will cause the average price of copper in 2011 to be 9,000 US dollars / t, and the average price forecast in October last year is 8300 US dollars / t. However, the agency does not believe that this year's copper market gap may reach 400,000 tons, because the greater use of alternatives and scrap copper and the increase in the use of efficiency will increase demand by 5%. Although the copper price is higher, the copper concentrate processing fee is also higher, and the latter will make the concentrate supply more abundant. When the copper price hits the $10,000/t barrier, there will be adjustments before continuing to rise. The average price of copper in 2012 was about US$9,500/t.
Barclays, the UK investment bank, believes that despite the recent stagnation of copper prices, its fundamentals remain generally positive. After the copper price kept rising for nearly three consecutive months, it was lower in late February. It is estimated that the supply gap in the first quarter of this year will be 42,000 tons, and the surplus in the fourth quarter of 2010 will be 122,000 tons. It is estimated that the demand for refined copper in China will increase by 7.2% this year. In addition, there is no news that additional supply of concentrate is easing its tension. Concentrate production data for the whole year of 2010 showed that the production of concentrate decreased year-on-year.
Antaike believes that China's refined copper consumption this year is expected to reach 730 to 7.4 million tons, an increase of 7.4 to 8.8% over 2010. The increase was mainly due to the government’s huge investment in power grids. Foreign institutions believe that China's consumption of refined copper will reach 7.74 million tons this year. Antaike said that the above prediction has taken into account factors such as anti-inflation and other macroeconomic policies.
The recent price will continue to adjust in the range of 9,000 to 10,000 US dollars.
2, the United States market:
Early: The copper market in the U.S. fell, because buyers in the processing industry either stopped purchasing in the spot market or purchased copper scrap to meet their production needs. Spot trading is small, traders said the premium for the deal was 4-5.5 cents/lb. A person in the processing industry stated that his factory has tried to use scrap copper as raw material. This has been done for several months, although the quality of scrap copper cannot be guaranteed. Scrap copper dealers stated that their transactions were stable, especially scrap copper transactions from brass production plants.
Late: The spot market for March delivery in the US copper market was flat. Buyers in the processing industry did not intend to purchase. Most processing industry buyers have sufficient stocks because of the large number of orders placed under their 2011 annual orders. Some processing industry buyers continue to purchase scrap copper to meet demand and reduce the amount of refined copper purchases because of its high prices. Due to the sluggish market conditions, traders can only satisfy the buyer's flexibility in terms of delivery terms in order to make a deal, although this has a risk for traders. Some buyers still adopt the strategy of buying and using, for example, they will wait until the second half of the month is not enough to order, but there is also the risk of supply disruption.
3. Copper Concentrates: The China Copper Materials Joint Negotiation Group and BHP Billiton finalized the 2011 Copper Processing and Smelting Fees (TC/RC) Agreement to achieve the 77.0/7.70 copper processing smelting costs (TC/RC), that is, smelting per ton US$77, refined 7.7 cents per pound, up 66% from the 2010 base price.
4, the domestic market: Customs data show that in January China imported 245,600 tons of refined copper, an increase of 24.49%, imported copper alloy 2,167,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 59%, imports of copper 365 million tons, an increase of 8.11%, imported copper Concentrate 571 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%. Imports of 72,400 tons of copper, an increase of 12.6%. Exports of 23.19 million tons of refined copper, an increase of 679.27%, 26,800 tons of copper alloy exports, an increase of 8.37%, 145,100 tons of waste copper exports, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, exports of 46,200 tons of copper, an increase of 21.8%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's refined copper consumption in 2010 reached 7.92 million tons, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year.
Due to the recent volatility of copper prices, domestic people are more cautious, and everyone is paying close attention to market conditions because domestic spot prices are too high. At present, the average price of refined copper in China exceeds 70,000 yuan/t, which is far higher than the average price of 60,000 yuan/t in the fourth quarter of 2010. Domestic traders said that the import of Chile's copper premium is CFR 100-110 USD/t, and the previous period is 80-90 USD/t. The shortage is the main reason. After Chile experienced an earthquake and turmoil in Chile last year, the supply of the copper market was tight, so the minimum premium required by the supplier is now US$100/t. Traders currently have almost no spot import business. They are waiting for the price to fall. Platts reported that the premium for CFR China ports was 100-110 USD/t, and the previous period was 80-100 USD/t.
Yunnan Copper's electrolytic copper production capacity adds 100,000 tons, which makes its total production capacity reach approximately 700,000 tons.
5, the industry view: British hedge ** - Redkite said, LME copper prices can not be stabilized above the 10,000 mark. **Manager Scott Hobart said that prices should at least be lowered to around 7500-8000 to attract Chinese consumers back to the market. At present, copper stocks at various exchanges around the world are about 1 million tons, and there is no shortage of supply. According to Cubralco, which sells copper products in the United Kingdom, as the LME copper price continues to hit a record high, the pace of substitution has accelerated. However, Aurubis, the largest copper producer in Europe, said that copper prices have reached a record high and China's demand has been affected. However, demand for copper in Europe continues to show growth.
The French bank Natixis believes that the global supply shortage will cause the average price of copper in 2011 to be 9,000 US dollars / t, and the average price forecast in October last year is 8300 US dollars / t. However, the agency does not believe that this year's copper market gap may reach 400,000 tons, because the greater use of alternatives and scrap copper and the increase in the use of efficiency will increase demand by 5%. Although the copper price is higher, the copper concentrate processing fee is also higher, and the latter will make the concentrate supply more abundant. When the copper price hits the $10,000/t barrier, there will be adjustments before continuing to rise. The average price of copper in 2012 was about US$9,500/t.
Barclays, the UK investment bank, believes that despite the recent stagnation of copper prices, its fundamentals remain generally positive. After the copper price kept rising for nearly three consecutive months, it was lower in late February. It is estimated that the supply gap in the first quarter of this year will be 42,000 tons, and the surplus in the fourth quarter of 2010 will be 122,000 tons. It is estimated that the demand for refined copper in China will increase by 7.2% this year. In addition, there is no news that additional supply of concentrate is easing its tension. Concentrate production data for the whole year of 2010 showed that the production of concentrate decreased year-on-year.
Antaike believes that China's refined copper consumption this year is expected to reach 730 to 7.4 million tons, an increase of 7.4 to 8.8% over 2010. The increase was mainly due to the government’s huge investment in power grids. Foreign institutions believe that China's consumption of refined copper will reach 7.74 million tons this year. Antaike said that the above prediction has taken into account factors such as anti-inflation and other macroeconomic policies.
The recent price will continue to adjust in the range of 9,000 to 10,000 US dollars.
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