Japan is a frequent area of ​​earthquakes. See what kind of impact the Japanese earthquake may have on the global hardware industry.
1. Impact on the raw material industry The 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Japan at 13:46 on March 11, 2011 had a huge impact on the global hardware industry chain. The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the international steel market was first reflected in the raw materials. The suspension of production of the three major steel plants will directly affect the demand for international coking coal and iron ore. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will be reduced by 3.5 million per month in the next six months. Ton, coking coal decreased by 1.7 million tons. At present, the spot iron ore market is in a downtrend channel, and the earthquake will accelerate the decline, and the decline will also exceed the previous market forecast. For the spot coking coal market, the impact of flooding in Australia will also be offset by the Japanese earthquake, and prices will return to a reasonable level.
Judging from the historical data of the past five years, Japan's annual crude steel production is basically between 85-125 million tons, accounting for 7%-10% of the world's crude steel. In 2010, crude steel production in Japan was close to 110 million tons and exports were about 43.40 million tons. Therefore, as far as the global pattern is concerned, the impact of the Japanese earthquake on global steel is also very limited.
In 2010, Japan imported 4.26 million tons of steel (excluding semi-finished products), which accounted for about 6.6% of its apparent consumption. The main sources of imports were Korea, China, and Taiwan. The main varieties imported are hot coils, cold coils and galvanized sheets. Compared with exports, Japan's imports are very low, and its impact on the external market is negligible. In 2010, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, which accounted for approximately 45% of its output. It is the world’s largest steel exporter and its main export destinations are Korea, China and other parts of Asia. The export varieties are mainly hot coil, galvanized sheet, cold coil, medium plate, welded pipe, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
The production capacity affected by the earthquake is mainly thin plates and medium-thick plates. It is expected that the export volume of Japanese thin plates and medium-thick plates will be significantly reduced in the next six months. The supply and demand balance of these two varieties in Asia will be broken, and the market price is expected to rise accordingly. It is estimated that after two or three months, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction will begin, which is expected to boost the export of construction steel in Asian countries. Automobile factories, shipyards and home power plants in Asia will be affected by the rise in steel prices, while large steel mills in China and South Korea may benefit from falling raw materials and rising steel prices.
For the Chinese steel industry, China imported 16.45 million tons of steel products in 2010, including 7.47 million tons of steel imported from Japan, accounting for about 45% of the total import volume, and the total amount of steel exports was 42.56 million tons, of which 810,000 tons were exported to Japan. , accounting for about 2%. Therefore, the direct view may have a certain impact on China's steel imports and have little effect on exports. As far as imported varieties are concerned, the Japanese steel industry is mainly focused on the production of high-end steel products, such as silicon steel sheets and high-grade car plates. In 2010, China imported 7.47 million tons of steel from Japan, and the earthquake will directly affect the export of high-end steel products in Japan. This will be beneficial to Chinese high-end sheet metal production enterprises, such as silicon steel sheet, high-grade car plates, special steel, etc., and steel in China. In terms of exports, Japan will export less steel to the world, which is conducive to the export of steel products in China.
Since Japanese steel companies do not basically produce construction steel, post-disaster reconstruction will also stimulate the export of steel for construction in Japan. As the earthquake in Japan caused some steel production enterprises in the northeast region to temporarily suspend production, although the impact on the total amount of iron ore is not particularly large, most of the global iron ore trade is currently in a wait-and-see phase. Therefore, Japan’s demand for iron ore is short-term. The decline may lead to a short-term decline in iron ore prices, which is conducive to the temporary relief of certain cost pressures for Chinese steel companies. But farther away, post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably bring about the growth of steel demand. After a short-term impact on the stimulation of iron ore, it will eventually stimulate even greater demand. In general, the earthquake in Japan will benefit the Chinese steel industry in the short term. In particular, companies such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel will directly benefit.
2. The impact on the electronics industry Different segments of the industry are affected to varying degrees. We combined the distribution of various sub-sectors in Japan and the industry structure. Luo Baihui analyzed that the impact of sub-sectors such as silicon wafers, glass substrates, NAND Flash, and DRAM, as well as its impact on the global market was relatively significant. Silicon wafers and glass substrates, two important upstream industries, may have a direct impact on the production capacity of large factories in the industry due to their proximity to the epicenter. If the plant equipment is damaged more seriously and the recovery period is longer, it may be Affecting the supply of raw materials to the downstream semiconductor and panel industries, and thus affecting the end consumer electronics industry.
According to statistics from research institute iSuppli, the output value of electronic equipment in Japan accounted for 13.9% of the global market share in that year in 2010. In the same year, Japan’s semiconductor output accounted for more than 20% of the global market share. During the quake, Sony shut down six factories; Panasonic chose to suspend production temporarily; Toshiba also closed its micro-controller plant in Iwate Prefecture. The earthquake did not cause too much damage to the factories or production facilities of these chip factories. However, equipment maintenance, insufficient power supply and traffic damage will all affect chip supply. iSuppli reported that the impact of the earthquake on the global chip market's hot-selling NAND flash memory chips is the most serious, because NAND flash memory is a core component of the world's best-selling electronic products including the Apple iPhone and iPad. Therefore, the market-selling Apple products iPhone4, iPad2 may appear to be in short supply.
After the earthquake, flash chip manufacturers such as Samsung and Hynix immediately launched an emergency mechanism to stop DRAM quotes; memory prices of memory chips and flash memory chips in China's domestic IT market have risen significantly after the earthquake, and channel companies have already expressed their reluctance to sell products. . NANDFlash and DRAM, Japan's global production capacity is relatively large, if the relevant production companies due to abnormal power and traffic, and can not function properly, may cause a significant increase in global market prices in the short term. Yang Yunjiao, manager of China Semiconductor Display Equipment Industry Association (SEMI) China plane display, said that manufacturers related to Japanese panel makers and upstream and downstream industries will be affected. China imports many key electronic products from Japan. The earthquake will have a negative impact on China's electronics industry. Some key components may be temporarily out of stock. However, in the medium to long term, the earthquake did not cause fatal damage to the related industries in Japan, and the substantial impact will not be too great.
3. Impact on the bulk metal industry Japan is the third largest copper smelter producer in the world. At present, two major copper refineries in Japan have ceased operation due to power interruptions. This became a reason for the rebound in copper prices on Friday. However, we are not worried that the stoppage of copper smelters will have a fundamental impact on copper production. Currently, the utilization rate of global copper smelting capacity is only about 70%. The increase in the utilization rate of copper smelters in other regions can buffer this effect. However, the impact of the earthquake in Japan has been extended to Chile. The Chilean government has issued evacuation notices to all flood-stricken coastal areas in the country to avoid possible tsunami caused by the earthquake in Japan. This will cause the export of Chilean copper to be affected. . It is reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has sent ships to the sea to prevent the impact of the tsunami. Discontinuation of coastal ports such as Chile may pose short-term supply tensions, but this is fundamentally different from the change in supply and demand of copper triggered by the Chilean earthquake.
The short-term impact of other bulk metals, such as lead, zinc and aluminum, mainly comes from the suspension of production by Japanese automakers, but the impact is minimal. Luo Baihui believes that Japan's auto industry has a global distribution of production capacity and better localization. Some production capacity and products can be allocated according to market conditions. In addition, most of the local factory production facilities are not directly damaged, and the infrastructure is restored after the earthquake. Production will gradually recover. We can also see from the aluminum consumption data in Japan that Japan accounts for only 5% of global aluminum consumption, so this earthquake will not have a significant impact on global aluminum consumption. From the rapid response of the Japanese authorities since the disaster to the present day and the high quality of the Japanese people, it can be seen that Japan’s post-disaster recovery process will also be extremely rapid, and it will bring about a certain pull on bulk metal consumption.
4. Impact on the steel market The earthquake directly affected the crude steel production capacity of about 26 million tons of the three major steel mills in Japan. The most influential steel products are sheet metal and plate, which are mainly used in the automobile and shipbuilding industries, followed by the affected species. For wire rods, which are mainly used in the automotive and construction industries, the production capacity of stainless steel, profiles and steel pipes is also affected. Japan's Nippon Steel, JFE, Sumitomo Metal, Tokyo Steel, and Kobe Steel's five major steel mills account for 75%-80% of Japan's total crude steel production. Dozens of five major steel production bases are mainly located in Tokyo. The Kanto region and the southern region, such as the Gulf, Osaka Bay, and Fukuoka Bay, are surrounded by land and half back to the epicenter, so the overall impact is small. Nippon Steel's Kamaishi and Sumitomo Metal's Kashima production base are located in the northeast, and are directly affected by the proximity to the epicenter and close to the coastline. Nippon Steel Kamaishi Ironworks plant part of the water, is also currently in production, but Kamaishi Iron Works also said that it is looking for other Nippon Steel's other iron production to replace the shipment; New Nippon Steel Jin Steel shock when the moment The stopped blast furnace has already started running. The quake also seriously damaged some of the steel factories close to the port. Since Japanese steel mills rely on imported raw materials and steel exports from ports, even before the port was repaired, even if the steel mills were not damaged by the earthquake, their production could not proceed smoothly. Judging initially, the steel mills affected by the earthquake will need to suspend production for at least six months, reduce steel production by 2.5 million tons per month, about 30% of normal production, and accumulate a minimum of 15 million tons of production, which is expected to lead to higher steel prices. .
5. Impact analysis on the plastics industry At 3:00 pm on March 11th, 2011, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck Japan, with the worst-affected areas in Fukushima Prefecture, Iwate Prefecture, Miyagi Prefecture, Ibaraki Prefecture, and Chiba Prefecture. The impact of suspension of production of enterprises will affect the Chinese chemical industry. US investment research firm Alembic Global Advisors predicts that global prices for ethylene and downstream synthetic resins will be pushed up due to factory closures and reduced supplies due to the earthquake in Japan. Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Co., Ltd. said on March 11 that it had shut down its factory in Kashima, Ibaraki Prefecture, due to power disruption caused by the earthquake. The plant is Japan’s largest ethylene plant and its output accounts for 11% of Japan’s total production. According to ICIS reports, there are five ethylene plants in Chiba Prefecture, and at least two have now been forced to close.
Alanbike Consulting Company stated that 90% of ethylene in Japan uses naphtha as raw material. They anticipate that the global supply and demand balance of ethylene will be even more tense after the earthquake, pushing up ethylene and polyethylene prices. The company's analyst Hassan Ahmed said that Japan’s ethylene production accounts for 5.5% of the world’s total, exports account for 8.5% of the world’s total; polyethylene production accounts for 4.1% of the world’s total, and exports account for 2.2% of the world’s total; Propylene capacity accounts for 5.5% of the world's total, and exports account for 4% of the world's total. As crude oil prices fall in the short term, the profits of ethylene products will expand. Ethylene producers such as Dow Chemical, LyondellBasell and Westlake Chemical will benefit from this. According to the measurement, at 5:50 am Beijing time on June 23, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred in the sea near the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan (39.9 N, 142.6 E), and the focal depth was 20.0 km. What kind of impact will this earthquake have on the hardware industry?
1. Impact on the raw material industry The 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Japan at 13:46 on March 11, 2011 had a huge impact on the global hardware industry chain. The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the international steel market was first reflected in the raw materials. The suspension of production of the three major steel plants will directly affect the demand for international coking coal and iron ore. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will be reduced by 3.5 million per month in the next six months. Ton, coking coal decreased by 1.7 million tons. At present, the spot iron ore market is in a downtrend channel, and the earthquake will accelerate the decline, and the decline will also exceed the previous market forecast. For the spot coking coal market, the impact of flooding in Australia will also be offset by the Japanese earthquake, and prices will return to a reasonable level.
Judging from the historical data of the past five years, Japan's annual crude steel production is basically between 85-125 million tons, accounting for 7%-10% of the world's crude steel. In 2010, crude steel production in Japan was close to 110 million tons and exports were about 43.40 million tons. Therefore, as far as the global pattern is concerned, the impact of the Japanese earthquake on global steel is also very limited.
In 2010, Japan imported 4.26 million tons of steel (excluding semi-finished products), which accounted for about 6.6% of its apparent consumption. The main sources of imports were Korea, China, and Taiwan. The main varieties imported are hot coils, cold coils and galvanized sheets. Compared with exports, Japan's imports are very low, and its impact on the external market is negligible. In 2010, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, which accounted for approximately 45% of its output. It is the world’s largest steel exporter and its main export destinations are Korea, China and other parts of Asia. The export varieties are mainly hot coil, galvanized sheet, cold coil, medium plate, welded pipe, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
The production capacity affected by the earthquake is mainly thin plates and medium-thick plates. It is expected that the export volume of Japanese thin plates and medium-thick plates will be significantly reduced in the next six months. The supply and demand balance of these two varieties in Asia will be broken, and the market price is expected to rise accordingly. It is estimated that after two or three months, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction will begin, which is expected to boost the export of construction steel in Asian countries. Automobile factories, shipyards and home power plants in Asia will be affected by the rise in steel prices, while large steel mills in China and South Korea may benefit from falling raw materials and rising steel prices.
For the Chinese steel industry, China imported 16.45 million tons of steel products in 2010, including 7.47 million tons of steel imported from Japan, accounting for about 45% of the total import volume, and the total amount of steel exports was 42.56 million tons, of which 810,000 tons were exported to Japan. , accounting for about 2%. Therefore, the direct view may have a certain impact on China's steel imports and have little effect on exports. As far as imported varieties are concerned, the Japanese steel industry is mainly focused on the production of high-end steel products, such as silicon steel sheets and high-grade car plates. In 2010, China imported 7.47 million tons of steel from Japan, and the earthquake will directly affect the export of high-end steel products in Japan. This will be beneficial to Chinese high-end sheet metal production enterprises, such as silicon steel sheet, high-grade car plates, special steel, etc., and steel in China. In terms of exports, Japan will export less steel to the world, which is conducive to the export of steel products in China.
Since Japanese steel companies do not basically produce construction steel, post-disaster reconstruction will also stimulate the export of steel for construction in Japan. As the earthquake in Japan caused some steel production enterprises in the northeast region to temporarily suspend production, although the impact on the total amount of iron ore is not particularly large, most of the global iron ore trade is currently in a wait-and-see phase. Therefore, Japan’s demand for iron ore is short-term. The decline may lead to a short-term decline in iron ore prices, which is conducive to the temporary relief of certain cost pressures for Chinese steel companies. But farther away, post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably bring about the growth of steel demand. After a short-term impact on the stimulation of iron ore, it will eventually stimulate even greater demand. In general, the earthquake in Japan will benefit the Chinese steel industry in the short term. In particular, companies such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel will directly benefit.
2. The impact on the electronics industry Different segments of the industry are affected to varying degrees. We combined the distribution of various sub-sectors in Japan and the industry structure. Luo Baihui analyzed that the impact of sub-sectors such as silicon wafers, glass substrates, NAND Flash, and DRAM, as well as its impact on the global market was relatively significant. Silicon wafers and glass substrates, two important upstream industries, may have a direct impact on the production capacity of large factories in the industry due to their proximity to the epicenter. If the plant equipment is damaged more seriously and the recovery period is longer, it may be Affecting the supply of raw materials to the downstream semiconductor and panel industries, and thus affecting the end consumer electronics industry.
According to statistics from research institute iSuppli, the output value of electronic equipment in Japan accounted for 13.9% of the global market share in that year in 2010. In the same year, Japan’s semiconductor output accounted for more than 20% of the global market share. During the quake, Sony shut down six factories; Panasonic chose to suspend production temporarily; Toshiba also closed its micro-controller plant in Iwate Prefecture. The earthquake did not cause too much damage to the factories or production facilities of these chip factories. However, equipment maintenance, insufficient power supply and traffic damage will all affect chip supply. iSuppli reported that the impact of the earthquake on the global chip market's hot-selling NAND flash memory chips is the most serious, because NAND flash memory is a core component of the world's best-selling electronic products including the Apple iPhone and iPad. Therefore, the market-selling Apple products iPhone4, iPad2 may appear to be in short supply.
After the earthquake, flash chip manufacturers such as Samsung and Hynix immediately launched an emergency mechanism to stop DRAM quotes; memory prices of memory chips and flash memory chips in China's domestic IT market have risen significantly after the earthquake, and channel companies have already expressed their reluctance to sell products. . NANDFlash and DRAM, Japan's global production capacity is relatively large, if the relevant production companies due to abnormal power and traffic, and can not function properly, may cause a significant increase in global market prices in the short term. Yang Yunjiao, manager of China Semiconductor Display Equipment Industry Association (SEMI) China plane display, said that manufacturers related to Japanese panel makers and upstream and downstream industries will be affected. China imports many key electronic products from Japan. The earthquake will have a negative impact on China's electronics industry. Some key components may be temporarily out of stock. However, in the medium to long term, the earthquake did not cause fatal damage to the related industries in Japan, and the substantial impact will not be too great.
3. Impact on the bulk metal industry Japan is the third largest copper smelter producer in the world. At present, two major copper refineries in Japan have ceased operation due to power interruptions. This became a reason for the rebound in copper prices on Friday. However, we are not worried that the stoppage of copper smelters will have a fundamental impact on copper production. Currently, the utilization rate of global copper smelting capacity is only about 70%. The increase in the utilization rate of copper smelters in other regions can buffer this effect. However, the impact of the earthquake in Japan has been extended to Chile. The Chilean government has issued evacuation notices to all flood-stricken coastal areas in the country to avoid possible tsunami caused by the earthquake in Japan. This will cause the export of Chilean copper to be affected. . It is reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has sent ships to the sea to prevent the impact of the tsunami. Discontinuation of coastal ports such as Chile may pose short-term supply tensions, but this is fundamentally different from the change in supply and demand of copper triggered by the Chilean earthquake.
The short-term impact of other bulk metals, such as lead, zinc and aluminum, mainly comes from the suspension of production by Japanese automakers, but the impact is minimal. Luo Baihui believes that Japan's auto industry has a global distribution of production capacity and better localization. Some production capacity and products can be allocated according to market conditions. In addition, most of the local factory production facilities are not directly damaged, and the infrastructure is restored after the earthquake. Production will gradually recover. We can also see from the aluminum consumption data in Japan that Japan accounts for only 5% of global aluminum consumption, so this earthquake will not have a significant impact on global aluminum consumption. From the rapid response of the Japanese authorities since the disaster to the present day and the high quality of the Japanese people, it can be seen that Japan’s post-disaster recovery process will also be extremely rapid, and it will bring about a certain pull on bulk metal consumption.
4. Impact on the steel market The earthquake directly affected the crude steel production capacity of about 26 million tons of the three major steel mills in Japan. The most influential steel products are sheet metal and plate, which are mainly used in the automobile and shipbuilding industries, followed by the affected species. For wire rods, which are mainly used in the automotive and construction industries, the production capacity of stainless steel, profiles and steel pipes is also affected. Japan's Nippon Steel, JFE, Sumitomo Metal, Tokyo Steel, and Kobe Steel's five major steel mills account for 75%-80% of Japan's total crude steel production. Dozens of five major steel production bases are mainly located in Tokyo. The Kanto region and the southern region, such as the Gulf, Osaka Bay, and Fukuoka Bay, are surrounded by land and half back to the epicenter, so the overall impact is small. Nippon Steel's Kamaishi and Sumitomo Metal's Kashima production base are located in the northeast, and are directly affected by the proximity to the epicenter and close to the coastline. Nippon Steel Kamaishi Ironworks plant part of the water, is also currently in production, but Kamaishi Iron Works also said that it is looking for other Nippon Steel's other iron production to replace the shipment; New Nippon Steel Jin Steel shock when the moment The stopped blast furnace has already started running. The quake also seriously damaged some of the steel factories close to the port. Since Japanese steel mills rely on imported raw materials and steel exports from ports, even before the port was repaired, even if the steel mills were not damaged by the earthquake, their production could not proceed smoothly. Judging initially, the steel mills affected by the earthquake will need to suspend production for at least six months, reduce steel production by 2.5 million tons per month, about 30% of normal production, and accumulate a minimum of 15 million tons of production, which is expected to lead to higher steel prices. .
5. Impact analysis on the plastics industry At 3:00 pm on March 11th, 2011, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck Japan, with the worst-affected areas in Fukushima Prefecture, Iwate Prefecture, Miyagi Prefecture, Ibaraki Prefecture, and Chiba Prefecture. The impact of suspension of production of enterprises will affect the Chinese chemical industry. US investment research firm Alembic Global Advisors predicts that global prices for ethylene and downstream synthetic resins will be pushed up due to factory closures and reduced supplies due to the earthquake in Japan. Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Co., Ltd. said on March 11 that it had shut down its factory in Kashima, Ibaraki Prefecture, due to power disruption caused by the earthquake. The plant is Japan’s largest ethylene plant and its output accounts for 11% of Japan’s total production. According to ICIS reports, there are five ethylene plants in Chiba Prefecture, and at least two have now been forced to close.
Alanbike Consulting Company stated that 90% of ethylene in Japan uses naphtha as raw material. They anticipate that the global supply and demand balance of ethylene will be even more tense after the earthquake, pushing up ethylene and polyethylene prices. The company's analyst Hassan Ahmed said that Japan’s ethylene production accounts for 5.5% of the world’s total, exports account for 8.5% of the world’s total; polyethylene production accounts for 4.1% of the world’s total, and exports account for 2.2% of the world’s total; Propylene capacity accounts for 5.5% of the world's total, and exports account for 4% of the world's total. As crude oil prices fall in the short term, the profits of ethylene products will expand. Ethylene producers such as Dow Chemical, LyondellBasell and Westlake Chemical will benefit from this. According to the measurement, at 5:50 am Beijing time on June 23, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred in the sea near the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan (39.9 N, 142.6 E), and the focal depth was 20.0 km. What kind of impact will this earthquake have on the hardware industry?
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