After entering the traditional gold market in September, the steel market as a whole suffered a setback, and the scrap market was hard to get a favorable boost. Under the draconian steel market, the decline accelerated after the middle and later quarters, with a significant drop. From the 15th to the 27th of this month, the heavy waste price of Tangshan dropped by RMB 150/ton to the current RMB 3,350/ton.
Market confidence is now insufficient, and the expected "Golden 9 Silver 10" market has not yet appeared. Demand has remained sluggish. Businesses have panic-stricken sales. Such high costs and dull market performance have caused pessimism to spread.
First of all, we talked about macroscopically. Since the outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the external economy has undergone major changes. The “second bottoming out†of the global economy has exacerbated the continuous deterioration of the market. For our country, it is the enormous pressure that ** costs continue to tighten. At the beginning of September, the central bank issued a notice to include three types of margin deposits such as credit deposits for bond deposits, guarantee deposits, and margin deposits for commercial banks in the deposit reserve of deposits. Reliance on small and medium-sized banks to provide ** traders or terminal companies is even more difficult. The tight liquidity of the market makes businesses further look beyond the market. Near the end of the month, the funds of market makers face multiple challenges, and it is expected that the shortage of market funds will not be resolved in the short term.
Second, China's steel demand in the second half of the year has not provided a strong guarantee for scrap steel. As is known to all, as the "12th Five-Year Plan" begins, the state will further increase the construction of affordable housing and strive to reach the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. It will basically solve the housing difficulties of low-income urban families and improve the income of some middle-lower families. Housing conditions. In the coming years, China will continue to build large-scale affordable housing, of which 10 million will be built in 2011. However, affected by such problems as tightening monetary conditions and local debt crisis, local governments may be forced to slow down the construction of affordable housing due to financial pressure. According to reports, the central government plans to reduce the number of affordable housing starts in 2012 by about 20% to 8 million units. The original 10 million sets of affordable housing construction can drive 36 million tons - 40 million tons of steel demand. After the tightening of the currency, it reduced the demand of 7.2 million tons to 8 million tons. At the same time in August, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the national urban affordable housing operating rate was over 70%, then the total demand for affordable housing in the second half of the year was between 3.6 million tons and 4 million tons. With the changes in the weather and the closing of a large number of real estate projects, this part of demand will obviously slow down, and the most important factors supporting the market are undergoing major changes. Moreover, the expectation of such reduction by the business is quite obvious, and the enthusiasm of the merchants to participate in the market is hindered
The third is the product's own properties. This month, the domestic scrap steel market as a whole was at a high level during the year. The mainstream tax-included price in the Zhangjiagang market was 3,870 yuan/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, or an increase of 920 yuan/ton, a record high for the year. Since the national abolition of tax rebates for renewable resources in July 10, due to the shortage of market resources and the continuous promotion of raw material cost factors, scrap prices have risen significantly. At the same time, the commencement of national affordable housing and other domestic projects in the first half of the year has also provided strong support for the steel market. Demand protection. However, after entering September, after a long period of significant high investment and high growth in domestic steel projects, in the face of the tightening of liquidity in the market, the capital chain has frequently experienced problems of fracture. Therefore, scrap has failed to break new heights, and after maintaining stability in the past days, it finally turned sharply and entered a correction.
Finally, the cost factor, since the mid-term, driven by the sharp decline in the finished product, iron powder into the down channel, up to now, Tangshan 66% acid dry powder base tax price fell a total of 100 yuan. The billet price fell from the high price of 4,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to the current 4,200 yuan/ton, with a drop of 300 yuan/ton.
Overall, the macro level of complexity increases the turbulence of the scrap steel market, and the scrap pressure will increase significantly in the later period. Recent data show that the discount rate for large-sum acceptance ** has soared, and the operating costs of talented businesses have increased. This undoubtedly increases the pressure on merchants again. At the end of the month, the phenomenon of low-priced goods withdrawn from returning funds is widespread everywhere. However, the market demand has determined the trend of the steel market. However, in the current favourable market environment, businesses are advised to grasp the market cycle and seize the opportunity to adjust the market.
Market confidence is now insufficient, and the expected "Golden 9 Silver 10" market has not yet appeared. Demand has remained sluggish. Businesses have panic-stricken sales. Such high costs and dull market performance have caused pessimism to spread.
First of all, we talked about macroscopically. Since the outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the external economy has undergone major changes. The “second bottoming out†of the global economy has exacerbated the continuous deterioration of the market. For our country, it is the enormous pressure that ** costs continue to tighten. At the beginning of September, the central bank issued a notice to include three types of margin deposits such as credit deposits for bond deposits, guarantee deposits, and margin deposits for commercial banks in the deposit reserve of deposits. Reliance on small and medium-sized banks to provide ** traders or terminal companies is even more difficult. The tight liquidity of the market makes businesses further look beyond the market. Near the end of the month, the funds of market makers face multiple challenges, and it is expected that the shortage of market funds will not be resolved in the short term.
Second, China's steel demand in the second half of the year has not provided a strong guarantee for scrap steel. As is known to all, as the "12th Five-Year Plan" begins, the state will further increase the construction of affordable housing and strive to reach the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. It will basically solve the housing difficulties of low-income urban families and improve the income of some middle-lower families. Housing conditions. In the coming years, China will continue to build large-scale affordable housing, of which 10 million will be built in 2011. However, affected by such problems as tightening monetary conditions and local debt crisis, local governments may be forced to slow down the construction of affordable housing due to financial pressure. According to reports, the central government plans to reduce the number of affordable housing starts in 2012 by about 20% to 8 million units. The original 10 million sets of affordable housing construction can drive 36 million tons - 40 million tons of steel demand. After the tightening of the currency, it reduced the demand of 7.2 million tons to 8 million tons. At the same time in August, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the national urban affordable housing operating rate was over 70%, then the total demand for affordable housing in the second half of the year was between 3.6 million tons and 4 million tons. With the changes in the weather and the closing of a large number of real estate projects, this part of demand will obviously slow down, and the most important factors supporting the market are undergoing major changes. Moreover, the expectation of such reduction by the business is quite obvious, and the enthusiasm of the merchants to participate in the market is hindered
The third is the product's own properties. This month, the domestic scrap steel market as a whole was at a high level during the year. The mainstream tax-included price in the Zhangjiagang market was 3,870 yuan/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, or an increase of 920 yuan/ton, a record high for the year. Since the national abolition of tax rebates for renewable resources in July 10, due to the shortage of market resources and the continuous promotion of raw material cost factors, scrap prices have risen significantly. At the same time, the commencement of national affordable housing and other domestic projects in the first half of the year has also provided strong support for the steel market. Demand protection. However, after entering September, after a long period of significant high investment and high growth in domestic steel projects, in the face of the tightening of liquidity in the market, the capital chain has frequently experienced problems of fracture. Therefore, scrap has failed to break new heights, and after maintaining stability in the past days, it finally turned sharply and entered a correction.
Finally, the cost factor, since the mid-term, driven by the sharp decline in the finished product, iron powder into the down channel, up to now, Tangshan 66% acid dry powder base tax price fell a total of 100 yuan. The billet price fell from the high price of 4,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to the current 4,200 yuan/ton, with a drop of 300 yuan/ton.
Overall, the macro level of complexity increases the turbulence of the scrap steel market, and the scrap pressure will increase significantly in the later period. Recent data show that the discount rate for large-sum acceptance ** has soared, and the operating costs of talented businesses have increased. This undoubtedly increases the pressure on merchants again. At the end of the month, the phenomenon of low-priced goods withdrawn from returning funds is widespread everywhere. However, the market demand has determined the trend of the steel market. However, in the current favourable market environment, businesses are advised to grasp the market cycle and seize the opportunity to adjust the market.
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