Power battery "structural supply is in short supply" Who will win after shuffling

The lithium battery industry chain sector is the undisputed A-share bull in the first half of this year, but since July, many leading stock prices have fallen. At the same time, from government departments to research institutions, about new energy vehicles and power battery capacity. The excess alarm is not overwhelming, and there is even a view that the lithium battery industry will face a major reshuffle in 2017.

So, where is this once rampant industry going? After investigation by the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter, at least at present, there is still a "structural supply shortage" in the power battery market, and those leading enterprises are still the market's sweets. Among them, enterprises that have entered the enterprise catalogue of "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" and have technical and scale advantages and are laid out in advance in the field of ternary power battery are most likely to stand out from the big reshuffle.

Industry fever promotes investment fever

Yesterday, Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074, shares it) announced the semi-annual performance report, the company's total operating income in the first half of the year was about 2.399 billion yuan, an increase of 169.11%; net profit of 533 million yuan, an increase of 141.09%. This is just a microcosm of the first half of the performance of the power battery sector and the double growth of the stock price.

According to the statistics of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, more than 60% of the 52 listed companies in the battery and battery materials industry chain reported a net profit increase in the first half of the year. Among them, eight listed companies in the power battery sector expect net profit growth in the first half of the year. In July, some listed companies even raised their profit forecasts. For example, Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd. announced that it expects net profit of RMB 86 million to RMB 93 million in the first half of the year, up 40% to 50% year-on-year; the company attributed its growth to the “power battery capacity as expected”. , gradually realize sales and achieve business growth."

Taking the line of sight extended, the rapid development of the power battery industry has also promoted the pace of securitization of leading companies in the industry. Among them, BYD (002594, shares), Ningde era, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Lishen, Waterma are the five domestic power battery companies, and their shipments even entered the top ten in the world in 2015. Among the top five, three have already landed in A-shares. In addition to BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech is listed by Dongyuan Electric, and Waterma is acquired by listed company Jianrui Fire (300116, shares). In addition, the Ningde era is planning to go public.

At the same time as the leading companies securitization, more listed companies choose to acquire small and medium-sized lithium battery companies or investment projects to expand their production capacity. According to statistics from the Institute of Advanced Research, Lithium and Electricity Research (GGII), since 2016, listed companies have announced more than 60 cases of mergers or acquisitions or new lithium battery or battery materials projects, involving more than 100 billion.

For example, in early July, Chengfei Integrated (002190, shares it) announced a plan to increase the amount of funds proposed to raise no more than 1.75 billion yuan, of which 1.35 billion yuan will be invested in the "China Aviation Lithium (Luoyang) Industrial Park Construction Phase III project." At the end of July, Oriental Seiko (002611, shares it) announced that it plans to purchase a 100% stake in Pride New Energy Battery Technology Co., Ltd. for 4.75 billion yuan. According to reports, Pride has designed and stereotyped 129 types of power battery systems (including energy storage, charging treasure, etc.), both lithium iron phosphate battery system and ternary battery system, suitable for more than 120 kinds of new energy electric vehicles; The main partners are BAIC New Energy, Foton Motor (600166, stock bar), Nanjing Jinlong, Zhongtong Bus (000957, stock bar), Beijing Hyundai and so on.

Overcapacity alarm sounds

The pursuit of capital has led to a surge in the valuation of power battery companies. In the A-share market, stocks such as Yanfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd., and Polyfluoride (002407, shares) have also reached new highs. However, since July, the stock price of listed companies in the power battery sector has suddenly turned down, causing investors' concerns. At the same time, some listed companies even terminated the acquisition. For example, the company announced on July 22 that it decided to terminate the acquisition of Shanxi Yuhang Automobile and Zhongdao Energy Co., Ltd., although Zhongdao Energy has entered the enterprise catalogue of "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions".

From a more macro perspective, differences have also arisen about the prospects of the new energy vehicle and power battery industry. Optimists such as Wu Songquan, director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, are optimistic about the long-term development of the new energy automobile industry. "In 2020, new energy vehicles will account for 8% of China's total vehicle sales (about 2.4 million vehicles), and the proportion will rise to 2030. 40%. Meanwhile, although the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles in the first half of this year was about 170,000, which is less than 25% of the 700,000 (year-round) target proposed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers at the beginning of the year, Yao, deputy secretary general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Jie still said that the annual sales forecast is not lowered. If the annual target of 700,000 vehicles is to be achieved, it means that the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles will be close to 530,000 in the second half of the year, an increase of 211% over the first half of the year. At that time, it will account for 30% to 50% of the total cost of new energy vehicles. The power battery industry will usher in rapid growth.

In contrast to the optimistic view, on July 20th, Wu Borong, dean of the School of Materials Science and Technology at Beijing Institute of Technology, blew the cold wind at the inaugural meeting of the “China New Energy Power Vehicle Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance”. He pointed out that at the end of 2016, the national power battery planning capacity will reach 60GWh; but the relevant data shows that the power battery capacity demand in 2016 is 30GWh. Based on this calculation, the overall capacity utilization rate in 2016 will be about 50%, and a large amount of production capacity will be idle or emptied. At the same time, under the temptation of high-energy space for new energy vehicles in recent years, power battery manufacturers have expanded their production capacity. In 2017, the planned production capacity has reached 90GWh.

The dominant enterprise is still Shannon

Although the overall capacity of the power battery may have excess concerns, downstream car companies are currently worried about the shortage of batteries. According to the survey, the layout of the ternary power battery and the advantages of the "automobile power battery industry standard conditions" catalog of power battery companies, is still the market's sweet.

According to statistics from the Institute of Advanced Industrial Research and Development, the domestic power battery output in the first half of this year was 12.72GWh, up 201% year-on-year; the power battery shipment was 10.1GWh, accounting for 79.4% of the output, and the inventory accounted for 20.6%. In the case of overall overcapacity, the power battery products of leading enterprises such as Ningde Times and Guoxuan Hi-Tech appeared “structured supply in short supply”.

The so-called "structural supply is in short supply" stems from three points. First, it is subject to the production qualification of power batteries. On April 29, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a “Supplemental Notice on Enterprise Declaration Work in Accordance with the “Regulations on the Standards of Automotive Power Battery Industry”, and the original non-mandatory catalogue became a mandatory catalogue. That is to say, the models that have entered the recommended catalogue of new energy vehicles must be equipped with power batteries that meet the requirements of the “Automobile Power Battery Industry Standards” in order to obtain subsidies from the state and local governments. Therefore, vehicle companies can only choose to temporarily abandon the purchase of unpowered car power batteries.

At present, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced four batches of "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" catalogue, no more than 60 single battery suppliers are shortlisted, Samsung, LG and other global battery giants have not entered the catalog, thus causing short-term effective supply of power batteries drop. It is reported that Samsung, LG and other foreign-funded battery giants are global vehicle power battery suppliers, with a market share of about 60% to 70% in China. Earlier reports said that Samsung and LG's ternary battery capacity in China reached 3Gwh, and last year, the total domestic ternary power battery shipments were 4.2Gwh.

Second, although there are about 170 companies producing power batteries in the domestic market, there are fewer than 10 power battery suppliers that can meet the technical requirements of downstream enterprises, such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Waterma. Leading companies such as the Ningde era. In the face of the olive branch invested by many new energy vehicles, the production capacity of the above-mentioned leading enterprises is still relatively insufficient.

Third, according to the investigation by the Shanghai Securities Journal, with the high growth of the new energy vehicle passenger car and logistics vehicle market, the power battery market structure is also changing. The ternary power battery is being connected to the lithium iron phosphate battery, becoming the future of new energy vehicles. The "window". Because the rapid growth of demand for ternary power batteries has not been anticipated before, most companies have not laid out in time, which has intensified the shortage of ternary power batteries.

The above points have been confirmed by downstream car companies. "Jianghuai Automobile (600418, shares it)'s high-end electric SUV products iEV6s, will use the national battery of Guoxuan Hi-Tech. Currently is doing matching tests." Yesterday, Jianghuai Automobile executives told the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter. Information from SAIC (600104, shares) shows that because of the tight supply of power batteries, the battery supply of the Roewe e550 can only be guaranteed. It is understood that the Roewe eRX5 plug-in strong mixed version originally planned to be listed at the end of the year may be delayed. The car is planned to be equipped with LG power battery. It is reported that SAIC passenger car company is considering a new solution for battery replacement.

In addition, FAW, Changan, Great Wall, Geely and other high-end new energy products are also affected by the choice of Samsung or Panasonic as a power battery supplier. The overseas auto giants (Benz, GM, BMW, Volkswagen), which originally planned to introduce new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, have also slowed down because Samsung and LG have not yet been selected for the battery catalog.

Under this pattern, companies such as Yiwei Lieneng and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which have already laid out ternary power batteries, will become beneficiaries. On July 13, Yiwei Lithium revealed on the interactive platform of investor relations that two production lines of the ternary material power battery first phase (1GWh) project have started production. At present, Yiwei Lithium has two mainstream power battery core technologies, lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery, and has been shortlisted for the fourth batch of batteries. Guoxuan Hi-Tech has expanded its ternary power battery capacity ahead of schedule. After its Hefei Phase III and Qingdao plants are completed and put into production, Guoxuan Hi-Tech's ternary power battery capacity will further increase in the third quarter of this year. At the same time, Ningde era is also expanding production capacity, the company's production capacity this year will reach 7.5GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate battery, ternary battery each accounted for half.