In the first half of this year, the global economic recovery was slow, and the instability and uncertainty factors increased. The impact on energy demand was particularly obvious. The dependence of China's bulk mineral products on external growth continued to rise. At the same time, the output of China's major mineral products still maintained growth, but the growth rate has slowed down. China's mining development is still at the stage of “big dryâ€. Some experts believe that according to the 10-year cycle of mining boom, especially under the influence of the current global economic recession, China's mining development is approaching the “turning pointâ€, but the development is still “endangered.†Overcapacity has increased external dependence in the first half of the year. The world economic development situation is very complicated. The US economy continues to be sluggish, Europe is in deep debt crisis, inflationary pressures in emerging economies are increasing, economic growth is slowing down, and there is a “double dipâ€. risk. The world's authoritative institutions such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have continuously lowered their expectations for future economic growth and are generally pessimistic about the development of the world economy. Affected by the slowdown of the world economy, the global mining industry is showing a downward trend. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, demand for major mineral products has shrunk, financing has become more difficult, costs have risen, and prices of metals such as iron, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have fallen. In the short term, global mining has entered a downturn. In the first half of the year, although the international financial crisis and China's economic restructuring have caused some resource industries to enter a relatively low period, the sustainable development of the entire society, especially the emerging economies, the irreversibility of the rigid demand for resources and energy has increased the continued prosperity of the mining industry. The possibility. Taking the “BRICs†as an example, the overall trend of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is irreversible, and the rigid demand for resources and energy will inevitably increase, and the global mining industry will continue to prosper. However, from the current situation in China, the mining capacity is generally over-represented. According to the statistics of the China Mining Association, in the first half of the year, China’s coal industry’s fixed asset investment reached 210 billion yuan, 5% higher than the national fixed asset investment, and the steel industry was 8% higher. The non-ferrous metals industry is 31% higher. In the first half of the year, fixed asset investment affecting China's resource demand slowed down, market demand continued to be weak, and mining supply capacity was still “sturdyâ€. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the country's new coal resource reserves exceeded 600 million tons and iron ore 1.8 billion tons. At the same time, the development of phosphorus, sulfur and potassium resources in important chemical minerals has generally improved, resource reserves have increased, production has increased substantially, product prices have risen steadily; chemical mining and mining industry has invested steadily, and industry benefits continue to improve. Affected by the global economic downturn, although the output of China's major mineral products has maintained growth, the growth rate has slowed down. In particular, raw materials related to infrastructure construction, such as iron ore, crude steel, 10 non-ferrous metals, cement, etc., the output growth rate slowed down year-on-year. In the entire mining industry, in the first half of the year, China's dependence on foreign oil continued to climb to 59.5%, directly reaching the red line of risk warning preset by industry experts. At the same time, natural gas imports continued to show rapid growth driven by the rigid demand for natural gas in China and the successive launch of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline. The supply and demand of phosphate rock is basically balanced, and the external dependence of sulfur resources exceeds 50%. Potassium fertilizer can not meet domestic demand. In the first half of the year, the prices of China's mineral products fluctuated at a high level, and prices of crude oil, iron ore, copper and gold all fell to varying degrees, and the cost of economic development increased. Looking for a rebirth after entering the trough According to the analysis of the China Mining Association, historically, the mining boom cycle is about 10 years, and this is exactly 10 years since 2003, but this time it is just a small turn in progress. ". The international financial crisis and the adjustment of China's economic structure have led some resource industries to enter a relatively low period. At the same time, although the development of emerging economies has been affected by this storm, which has led to a slowdown in economic growth, overall, the strategic objectives of emerging economies have not changed. At the same time, in the first half of the year, China's mining situation has seen many new situations. Many experts believe that this is the "inflection point" of the mining industry, and is convinced that China's huge demand for commodities will lead to the long-term maintenance of commodity prices on the one-way street. The mining economy will continue to maintain a stable and steady development momentum. Wang Jiahua, executive vice president of China Mining Association, believes that the international financial situation will definitely affect the development of China's mining industry, but the key depends on how long the crisis will last and whether it can find a feasible way to resolve it. At present, the temporary low development of mining industry is precisely the best time for China's mining industry to re-examine itself and adjust itself. The positioning of industry attributes, the repetitive disorder of industrial structure in the industry, and the lack of bottom line expansion of production capacity have persistently hindered the development of the industry. In the current slowdown of industry development, we should seize the opportunity to solve the contradictions of these industries and seek rebirth. . Especially after the financial crisis, mining companies should accumulate more experience and strategies to deal with the crisis. In fact, as the problems faced by China's energy resources become clearer, it is increasingly able to feel the problems of the existing growth methods. At present, the overcapacity of China's mining industry and the inability to use it rationally is the best time to adjust the industrial structure. Moreover, today's mineral prices and benefits are the best time to promote energy conservation and emission reduction. Liu Shuchen, director of the Resource Analysis Office of the Information Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, believes that during the difficult period of the global economy, it has had a great impact on the mining industry. In the process of international mining operations, capital financing difficulties, policy resource nationalism, high cost and surge in talent demand, especially changes in the capital market, or a good opportunity for China's mining industry to “go globalâ€. With the continuous improvement of the strategic position of advantageous minerals such as rare earths, major international disputes over related mineral products have increased dramatically. This requires resource management departments to improve their response capabilities, improve the pertinence, effectiveness, and compliance of superior mineral management policies, strengthen research on international rules and practices, and coordinate all aspects of mineral exploration, mining, smelting, price, and trade. Policies to ensure the coordination and consistency of policies; accelerate the construction of a superior mineral reserve system, in particular, focus on mobilizing and exerting the polarity of all parties, and establish a sound reserve system such as the central government's strategic reserves, local government economic reserves, and mining enterprises' commercial reserves; Close attention should be paid to the status quo of iron ore, coal stocks, and still large imports.
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