Offshore wind power investment outlook is not optimistic

According to the British "The Times" report, some analysts believe that offshore wind power investment is huge and the risk is high and the utility is doubtful. It is like the "white elephant" in the water. According to estimates by the UK's Ministry of Energy and Climate Change, the implementation of green energy policies led to a 17% increase in UK electricity prices and a further rise to 33% or 44% by 2020 (if gas prices fall). The cost of offshore wind power is the main reason for the rise in UK electricity prices. Renewable energy sources believe that by 2020, the green energy policy will cause consumers to pay 15 billion pounds in electricity bills each year, most of which will be used to support offshore wind projects.

At present, offshore wind power is less than 3% of the UK's total electricity generation, or less than 0.5% of the UK's total energy supply. However, if we want to achieve the grand plan of the British energy minister David to increase the proportion of offshore wind power to 20% of total power generation in 2020, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power needs to reach 20GW (its actual operating rate is less than 40%). It is 6 times the current total installed capacity, and the construction cost will be much greater than the nuclear investment in the same period. Although the installation of offshore wind turbines need not worry about the local government's objections and do not have to bribe the land owners, the offshore wind power is relatively strong and reliable, but it faces many unresolved engineering and technical issues. Three years ago, more than half of the offshore wind turbine bases in Europe were displaced as the cement grouting began to dissolve, leading to large-scale maintenance and redesign. The root cause lies in the urgency of achieving success in order to achieve political achievements. However, the number of offshore turbine construction risks and the number of companies that can manage risks are extremely asymmetric. As a result, the construction costs have not fallen as expected. The British government set a target to reduce the price of electricity for offshore wind power to twice the normal wholesale electricity price, but this summer it announced that the “execution price” for offshore wind power can only be reduced slightly, which means that it has abandoned its target. Problems such as the construction of transmission cables, substations, and coping with seawater corrosion will be huge challenges, which will increase construction costs and delay the achievement of targets. Many in the industry believe that the fan life in the North Sea will be significantly lower than the expected 25 years. A study from the University of Edinburgh showed that the operating efficiency of Danish offshore wind farms has dropped from 39% to 15% after 10 years. Of course, the first 12 years of operation of Blyth Offshore Wind Farm in the UK, the earliest in Northumberland, was still relatively efficient.

However, practice has proved that huge offshore wind turbines are not as environmentally-friendly as they are supposed to be. It is reported that an offshore wind farm near Dorset needs to build a 22-mile plant transmission cable. Seabirds will also face risks, such as the need to avoid wind farms during the migration of pink footed geese, and songbirds may experience illusions due to fan blade disturbance when crossing the North Sea. The British Birdlife Research Institute believes that 2,603 ​​adult pecans and 1,056 goslings are killed annually by wind farms on the British coast, far more than other industrial factors. Due to the narrowness of the navigation channel caused by the wind farm, there is a risk that the oil tankers will collide and hit the wind turbine. As this year Lord Greenway stated in the Parliament, the risk of such collisions rose by more than four times in some narrow areas.

In comparison, the offshore wind power price is 155 pounds per megawatt-hour, and the nuclear power price is 90 pounds per megawatt-hour. The general wholesale electricity price is 50 pounds per megawatt-hour, so the offshore wind power must realize a total installed capacity of 20 GW in 2020, Its attractiveness of investment is a big problem. Since coal power generation is about to be launched, natural gas power generation is limited, and tidal, timber and hydroelectric power generation are limited. Even if the nuclear power plan is ambitious, the UK still needs to invest 45 billion pounds in offshore wind power by 2020 and another 54 billion by 2030. The pound, which means that offshore wind power investment will be greater than any other energy source, even nuclear power. It is unrealistic for such a large-scale investment to become a contemporary political problem for energy prices. Although the UK continues to develop offshore wind power projects, it is increasingly difficult to decide whether to invest in new offshore wind farms before the 2015 election.

Many people realized that the abundant shale oil and gas resources once again postponed the advent of the oil peak and pushed down the prices of coal, natural gas and oil in the United States. The next step might also push down the price of the above energy products in other regions. Therefore, in the next few decades, the chance of offshore wind power completely replacing coal and natural gas for power generation is very low. In short, the politicization of energy prices promoted by Ed Miliband (now the leader of the British Labour Party) may stifle the industry he cherishes. Soon, the energy discussion will no longer be the question of whether offshore wind power should be built, but how offshore wind power is doomed to overcome the shortage of power generation. After the European Parliament’s environmental vote has led to a reduction in the feasibility of shale gas development, this will be even more of a problem.