Domestic Urea Market Analysis Report

According to the relevant data, domestic urea prices fell back within a week from October 22 to October 27, 2012.

After the end of the autumn fertilizer market, most regions entered the off-season fertilizer season, and the market outlook is pessimistic. Most dealers take a wait-and-see attitude, so the overall demand in the agricultural market is dull. Industrial compound fertilizer plants and plywood mills have lower operating rates, and raw material procurement needs It is not ideal; while the export window period in China is coming to an end, there are no new orders for export orders, and sales pressure has been increasing after some manufacturers have issued export orders.

Affected by the above three factors, the price of urea in Huadong, Huazhong, and South China generally declined this week, which is a drop of 20-50 yuan/ton compared with last week. Some large companies in Shandong and surrounding areas will continue to maintain their prices at high levels because of the execution of export orders. Therefore, the gap between high and low end prices has significantly increased, but high-end prices have not been substantially traded. For example, manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and Henan offer 1940-2010. RMB/ton, mainstream transactions were 1940-1960 yuan/ton, Jiangsu factory quotation was 2010-2120 yuan/ton, actual transaction was 2000-2050 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream domestic urea factory price 1950-2050 yuan / ton, the low-end prices are still concentrated in the northwest region, including Gansu, Ningxia Xinjiang mainstream Fed pre-offer quotes 1850-1900 yuan / ton, Xinjiang mainstream Fed pre-acceptance 1800 yuan / ton up and down, market feedback Xinjiang's outward orders are more than 1,600 yuan/ton.

China's urea export tariff will be raised to 110% from November 1. However, shipments to the bonded area may continue until November 10-15. The conditions of the ports are different. At present, the manufacturers are implementing pre-export orders, and there are basically no new transactions. Therefore, the decline in international urea prices and new procurement bids in India have not caused any significant impact on the domestic urea market. According to customs statistics, China’s urea export volume reached 1,255,900 tons in September, and the cumulative export volume from January to September was 2,598,000 tons. From this perspective, the total urea export volume is expected to exceed 4 million tons this year, and may even reach 500. Ten thousand tons, which exceeds the pre-market consensus of more than 3 million tons.

On the whole, due to the better-than-expected export situation, the rate of decline in urea prices may slow down. However, the domestic market demand is weak, and the industry is worried about the impact of the gradual release of new production capacity, so the main trend is still Will continue to maintain the downward trend, so the winter storage procurement still need to be cautious.