Acrylic market rally or short-lived

To talk about the petrochemical market stars in October, it is undoubtedly the straight line of acrylic acid prices in the past month. However, with the expansion of the industry's capacity and downstream demand has not been significantly improved, the product's upswings in the previous period may be short-lived.

First, the price of acrylic acid is not expected to be expected from September 27 to October 24, satellite petrochemical shares soared 48.64%. At the same time, according to the price analysis of business clubs, on October 1, 2012, the domestic acrylic acid acid factory price continued to maintain stable at 12,300 yuan / ton, as of October 29, the factory price was 16,800 yuan / ton, up 36 %.

Liu Xintian, chief researcher of the China Commodity Research Center under the Business Club, said that since the explosion of the 380,000-ton acrylic device by Japan's acrylic giant catalyst company at the end of September, the domestic acrylic acid price has continued to rise, which has reversed the downturn in the second and third quarters of this year. The company's performance has also improved.

"Acrylic acid this round of the market has a lot of chance, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, while the supply is still large, it is expected that such a large market will be short-lived." Liu Xintian said.

However, according to Fu Shan, an acrylic acid analyst at the business club chemical branch, acrylic acid continued to soar in one month, and the current increase has narrowed, but it is not ruled out that the market outlook may still rise.

Under the atmosphere of recent strong speculation in the acrylic industry, CNOOC's annual production of 200,000 tons of acrylic acid and esters project was officially put into operation recently, causing widespread concern in the industry.

The three quarterly reports disclosed by satellite petrochemical show that the decline in the third quarter performance narrowed. In the first three quarters, the company realized net profit of 289 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.16%, a decrease of 3.88 percentage points from the first half of the year. Satellite Petrochemical expects its annual net profit to be between 380 million and 470 million yuan.

Satellite Petrochemicals staff said: "Acrylic acid prices of the company's main products fell all the way in the first half of this year, mainly due to the domestic and international economic situation and the impact of crude oil prices, but since July, all major manufacturers of acrylic acid prices are in the rising channel. The accident of the Japanese catalyst company last month formed a positive effect on the domestic acrylic industry and will push up the price of related products to a certain extent. Satellite Petrochemical recently raised the ex-factory price of acrylic acid and esters, which is also related to seasonal demand."

Second, the market supply is becoming more saturated Liu Xintian said: "From the supply point of view, the supply of the acrylic acid market will tend to be saturated and the future competition will become increasingly fierce. Whether in China or in Asia, the chemical industry as a whole faces excess capacity. However, in order to maintain market share and competitive advantage, large-scale enterprises are still expanding their production."

According to statistics, at present, the annual production of acrylic acid in China is about 1 million tons, and the annual export is about 50,000 tons. At the same time, the supply of acrylic acid is also expanding.

The total investment of 200,000 tons of acrylic acid and ester produced by CNOOC in Huizhou recently was 2.75 billion yuan. Its products are mainly used in industries and fields such as environment-friendly coatings, adhesives, and high water-absorbent resins. After the project is put into production, it is expected to be realized each year. Sales revenue is about 2.5 billion yuan. Wang Yilin, chairman of CNOOC, stated that the 200,000-ton/year acrylic acid and ester project was completed and put into production. It is an important symbol of the extension of CNOOC's refining and chemical industry to fine chemical industry.

In addition, the progress of investment in satellite petrochemical disclosure shows that the company's annual output of 320,000 tons of acrylic acid and annual output of 300,000 tons of acrylate project has entered the design stage. It is expected that the project will be put into trial production by the end of 2013.

“Accompanying the saturated capacity of the acrylic industry, there will be a situation where the fittest will survive. For acrylic-scale companies such as CNOOC and satellite petrochemical, they can increase their competitiveness through horizontal and vertical simultaneous expansion. While extending to the fine chemical industry, Building an industrial chain such as acrylic acid to digest its own production capacity, and other backward production capacity will be eliminated in the market competition." Liu Xintian said.