Recently, the China Business Research Institute released the import volume and amount growth rate of China's metal processing machine tools from January to November 2018. Overall, the import volume and import value of metal processing machine tools in China from January to May 2018 exceeded the same period of last year; from June to September, the import volume and import value of metal processing machine tools showed a downward trend, including China Metalworking Machine Tool in November 2018. Imports fell by 30.5% year-on-year.
The data shows that from January to June, the number of imported metal processing machine tools in China was 1042, 4935, 10958, 8726, 9120, and 7174 (unit: Taiwan), which increased by 96.50%, 1.2%, 68.3%, and 14.6, respectively, compared with the same period of last year. %, 26.8, -29.8%. From January to June, the amount of imported metal processing machine tools in China was 954.9, 564.1, 1040.9, 933.2, 970, and 785.7 (unit: million US dollars), which increased by 115.8%, 9.1%, 64.3%, and 30.1%, respectively, compared with the same period of last year. , 45%, -8.8%.
From July to November, the number of imported metal processing machine tools in China was 6328, 6329, 7589, 5253, and 5236 (unit: Taiwan), which increased by -31.3%, -43.6%, -13%, and 11.7%, respectively, compared with the same period of last year. -30.5%. From January to June, the amount of imported metal processing machine tools in China was 812.8, 788.6, 853.4, 690.9, 640.2 (unit: million US dollars), which increased by 0.7%, -13.8%, -10.3%, -9 compared with the same period of last year. %, -19.3%.
From the above data, compared with the same period of last year in the first five months of 2018, metal processing machine tools have increased in both the quantity and the amount of imports; since June, the import of metal processing machine tools has become colder, compared with the same period last year. It is a downward trend than the whole. This trend is basically consistent with China's import trend of Japanese machine tools. On September 13, the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" released a report saying that Japan's foreign demand (exports) in August fell by 4.4% year-on-year, which was the first time in Japan that a 21-month period of year-on-year decline. On October 23, the September Machine Tool Order (determined value) released by the Japan Machine Tool Industry Association showed that Japan’s export orders to China were lower than the previous year for 7 consecutive months, down 22.0% year-on-year to 18.9 billion yen. In November, the Japanese media "Japan Economic News" broke out again. Japanese machine tool exports to China fell by a third in October, and the overall export share fell 23 months.
The slowdown in imports of metalworking machine tools in China has had a significant impact on the export of machine tools such as Japan. What made the machine tool import market hot in the first half of the year, and turned cold in the second half? I think there are several reasons.
In the first half of the year, the number of imports of metalworking machine tools increased rapidly, mainly due to two reasons. First, related policies such as "Made in China 2025" have driven the development of the manufacturing industry and increased investment in related fields. Second, the important downstream of metal processing machines such as mobile phones and automobiles has developed rapidly, driving the demand for related machine tools. The data shows that in the first half of 2018, China's automobile production and sales maintained a relatively stable growth rate, and the 3C digital field including smart phones also presented a high market demand for machine tools.
In the second half of the year, China's metal processing machine tool imports turned cold compared with the first half of the year and the same period last year. The main reasons are: First, the consumer market returned to normal. After the import of metal processing machine tools has been at a high level for nearly half a year, it is normal for market demand to be weak. Second, China's economic development has slowed down. In the case of a stable economic environment, corporate capital turnover has also slowed down, leading to a decline in enthusiasm for equipment investment. Third, the important downstream demand for metal processing machines such as automobiles and mobile phones has decreased. The data shows that China's automobile production and sales have declined year-on-year since July, while demand in mobile phone related fields has also declined, which has also led to a decline in Japanese machine tool exports to China. Fourth, the impact of the Sino-US trade war. The escalating trade war has affected many industries, including the machine tool industry. The risk of business operations has increased, and many companies have turned their attention to investment.
Metalworking machine tools, as an important category in machine tools, account for more than 50% of the global distribution of machine tools. Therefore, the import trend of metal processing machine tools can also reflect the changes in machine tool imports since 2018. From another perspective, we can also see the development trend of China's machine tool industry in 2018 from the machine tool import data.
According to the industry operation of the China Machine Tool Industry Association from January to October, the main business income and total profit of the whole industry and each sub-sector are still in the growth range, but the growth rate has continued the downward trend since the second half of the year. The overall operation of the industry has slowed down, market demand has continued to decline, and downward pressure has increased. It can be seen that not only the machine tool imports are cold in the second half of the year, but the market performance of the entire machine tool industry in the second half of the year is not very optimistic.
Overall, China's machine tool market has maintained a warming trend, and it is expected to achieve a small increase throughout the year. As for the specific situation of machine tool import and export in 2018, it is necessary to wait for the December data to be released before further analysis can be done.
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