Wenzhou, once known as the "Jewish" of the East, is known for being smart, diligent, and shrewd. However, under the rush of this era of torrents, it has now collapsed and is completely defeated!
Before discussing this issue in depth, let's first look at how Wenzhou people won in the past.
First of all, Wenzhou's business thinking can be summarized in three stages:
Make a difference (early)
? Looking for the first machine (interim)
? Fried market (late)
1. The so-called difference is to know where something is expensive, where it is cheap, and then resell it to make a difference. This is the "reverse" of China during the reform and opening up, because at that time, commodities were in urgent need of circulation, so this behavior was adapted to the needs of the times.
The first generation of Wenzhou people were very hard-working. They rushed to all corners of China. "Only where the birds can't fly, there is no place where Wenzhou people can't reach." Therefore, the first wave of dividends that China's reforms began to release were exclusively enjoyed by them.
2. The so-called first opportunity is to be able to gain insight into business opportunities. Wenzhou people are known as Chinese Jews. It is one of the most keen people in the market in China. Where is the market, where there are business opportunities, there are Wenzhou people. They always capture many market opportunities and first discover market demand.
This has directly contributed to the development of Wenzhou's manufacturing industry. Under the gestation of a huge market, Wenzhou people are fully committed to the development of light industry manufacturing. All of the family workshops are all over the city. Wenzhou people's shoes, glasses, valves, lighters, clothing, transformers, pens, printed materials, locks, etc. are famous at home and abroad, shoe kings, pen kings, lock kings... abound .
3. The so-called speculation market is that it is no longer engaged in production or trade, but plays a capital game. The impression of Wenzhou people in the later period is that they will be "fried".
The first is the speculation. Wenzhou people almost monopolized coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, and then sold them and raised prices.
The second call is real estate. Wenzhou's wife, real estate speculators, wherever they cross the border, prices have soared. Stir-fry all over the country, no wins, and earned a pot full of pots.
The third call is speculation. Wenzhou's private lending was the first to be active in China, playing as a usury and making money with money.
Since everything is just to earn more money, Wenzhou tasted the sweetness of playing finance and began to give up the industry, focusing on coal, real estate speculation and speculation.
However, the extremes of things must be reversed. The result of this kind of thinking is now obvious to everyone. The thinking of Wenzhou people not only harms Wenzhou, but also destroys the whole country. China's real estate speculators and usury are learning Wenzhou.
In the years when the money was spent, there was a lot of mutual protection between different business groups in Wenzhou, and this intricate chain of guarantees entwined everyone.
The most crucial thing is that the funds obtained through mutual insurance financing have not been invested in the entity, but have been used for private lending and real estate. In this way, the excessive financing caused by mutual insurance further widened Wenzhou's economic bubble and asset bubble.
In Wenzhou today, the industry has suffered a devastating blow and has been greatly hurt. The factory closed down, the boss "runs the road", and countless enterprises are lingering.
Wenzhou was once one of the most dynamic and abundant cities in China's economy. Now, the lingering bankruptcy haze is still over the city. In Wenzhou, the prosperity of the former merchants and the diligence seems to have been replaced by the debt of the entrepreneurs.
The most important thing is: Wenzhou is the epitome of China, let's compare the two.
High price
From 2000 to 2013, Wenzhou’s developers were profitable for more than a decade. The Wenzhou property market has rapidly increased from 3,000 yuan to 2 square meters per square meter in 2013. At that time, the Wenzhou people who were good at speculation sold their houses just like selling pickles. The developers just took pictures and the house was sold out.
At that time, it was common for a real estate speculator to buy several sets and dozens of sets. Even if you want to find a relationship in the province to buy, Wenzhou set off a boom in the real estate speculation, and then burned the fire to the whole country.
Since then, there has been no peace in the Chinese property market. However, with the passage of time, the real economy in Wenzhou began to encounter difficulties due to the bottom-line wages of real estate. At the end of 2010, the capital chain was tight and the boss “running the roadâ€. The crisis later spread the domino effect. For a time, the phenomenon of selling real estate by enterprises and individuals appeared in large areas, and there was a tragedy in which house prices fell for 32 consecutive months. Some commercial houses fell by 30% to 40% compared with the peak. Individual luxury houses even stopped!
Later, the number of houses commissioned by Wenzhou’s judicial authorities increased significantly. Wenzhou District Court officials said that 80% of the assets seized are personal property, because once the house price collapses, abandoning the house will become a normal phenomenon. Because the real estate purchase funds used by real estate speculators, basically from various channels of loans, such as 2010, someone bought a row of houses at a price of about 80,000 yuan / square meter, and now the market price of 40,000 yuan / square meter, no one cares, At this point, he will feel that there is no point in repaying the loan, simply giving up the supply. Once the large-scale abandonment of the private sector, the entire economy will be affected. In 2013, at the Standing Committee of the Wenzhou Municipal Committee, Chen Yixin, the secretary of the municipal party committee, publicly disclosed the “bottom†data for the first time: among the 16 major economic indicators, most of Wenzhou were in Zhejiang Province. "The ranks, per capita GDP, GDP growth, total fiscal revenue, and other nine indicators are the last, and the other four are the second last! Therefore, the impact of high housing prices on Wenzhou is devastating!
Industrial hollowing
Due to the profit-seeking nature of the market, when everyone finds that playing finance is far more profitable than doing business, they will resolutely give up the physical industry. When funds flow to virtual financial and speculative industries, the real economy will be hollowed out.
For example, Wenzhou borrowed in the past few years: borrowers often borrowed money through private bridges to repay loans, and then loaned money from banks to private lenders, thus generating prosperous private lending. Statistics for 2011: Wenzhou has 89% of family members and 59.67% of companies participate in private lending!
As a result, the entire Wenzhou family has played a business with left-handed money and right-handed money. Who still has the mind to engage in physical production? Moreover, this situation spread rapidly across the country. Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Hunan and other places are learning the mode of private lending. Later, there were frequent news of private lending crashes everywhere.
Later, this kind of financial game was put on the Internet + cloak, turned into a P2P platform, and set off a wave of development throughout the country, and reached its peak in 2015... How many families in China collapsed because of this financial game , or relatives? No one has dared to count.
In 2015, Wenzhou City Commercial Bank disposed of 40.5 billion yuan in non-performing loans! Wenzhou, as China's most speculative region, has lost its profits because of the lack of money spent on industrial upgrading. Ten years have passed, our houses are getting higher and higher, more and more, and finance is getting hotter, but the manufacturing industry we rely on is still a low-end processing industry! We really can't help but wake up.
Full privatization
I think this is very important. There is a voice about the future direction of the Chinese economy that needs to be fully privatized. In this regard, Wenzhou can also be used as a reference. The degree of privatization in Wenzhou is basically the highest in the country. In industrial enterprises above designated size in 2015, the industrial added value of state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises accounted for less than 4%.
It can be said that Wenzhou is a representative of China's wealthy people, and wealth is concentrated in the hands of private capital. However, measuring the degree of civilization of a society depends on the degree of modernization of public facilities and institutions in a region. Such as hospitals, schools, roads, etc. Therefore, we can find that the increase in personal wealth in Wenzhou has not significantly improved the local public service level, or transformed into a simultaneous improvement in Wenzhou's public environment. Although Wenzhou people have money, the cities and roads in Wenzhou are ruined, public services are seriously inadequate, and municipal construction is far from being like a region.
Anyone who has been to Wenzhou will have a common feeling that the traffic situation is extremely poor. What is important is that this traffic situation is not caused by the narrowness of the car, but because there are very few vehicles obeying the traffic rules. Why is Wenzhou, rich in people's wealth, and people's quality and wealth not proportional?
This reflects the contradiction between privatization and publicization. If the public environment of a local area is difficult to be improved by the local first rich, let alone the people in the first rich area drive the people in the post-rich area.
Wenzhou has always been a highly market-oriented representative, resulting in insufficient public investment and low public services. Allowing enterprises to develop independently, the result has led to the hollowing out of a large number of entities; allowing private financial development, but the result has led to private lending and real estate speculation.
Isn't this a good textbook worth learning?
One-sided advocating liberalization and not paying attention to guidance is like having no traffic lights and traffic police on the road, allowing vehicles to pass freely. It is hoped that vehicles can freely avoid traffic and avoid traffic. Are you feasible?
Most private companies are only pursuing immediate interests, and they will inevitably lead to a smashing or sloppy situation. They think that overcapacity is the result of rushing, and that disruption of innovation is a glimpse of results. !
The Wenzhou crisis shows that it is not advisable to privatize the economy at this stage. The author believes that before the Internet + high-level collaboration platform is fully functional, the government's hands should play a certain regulatory role within a reasonable boundary.
How to regulate? It is necessary for individual outstanding enterprises to take the lead in technological upgrading and transformation, and to increase industrial concentration through mergers and acquisitions. It is unrealistic to rely on the small private enterprises to complete the transformation and upgrading. China is now a capital surplus. We need to integrate many capitals into professional capital management institutions, integrate and sort out those backward production capacity, lead them to emerging industries, and change “opportunistic†into “value investment†to promote progress.
In addition, the development of private enterprises is often limited by the height and vision of the helm. The author believes that there is no such thing as a professional manager in Wenzhou or Zhejiang. It’s all the boss’s calculations, and because this generation of bosses have no culture, they all rely on hard work to start, which leads to limited thinking. In the closed structure of enterprises, exclusion, and insufficient investment in science and technology, there is still a certain gap between modern corporate governance. It directly affects the innovation and development of enterprises. This is not only the status quo of private enterprises in Wenzhou, but also the narrowness of private enterprises in China!
Due to the above problems, Wenzhou’s economy has not been able to recover its vitality so far. It is unnecessary to say that all kinds of escaping debts are serious. The collapse of the credit system is the most deadly. The bosses have to use fake bankruptcy and property transfer to protect private wealth. Evading debts has hurt the mutual trust between enterprises and banks, between enterprises and enterprises, and between people. Credit is the cornerstone of wealth, and credit destroys the economy and collapses immediately.
The Wenzhou social credit system needs to be rebuilt, which is the time to really test Wenzhou.
In summary: the so-called Wenzhou model has come to an end.
Go back to the beginning to look at the three major modes of thinking in Wenzhou, earning the difference, looking for opportunities, and speculating the market. First, the Internet has eliminated information asymmetry, so there is no longer a difference; secondly, today's product variety is rich enough, people need to be good products, not how to find products, so there is no longer a chance to find opportunities; finally, because of the Chinese economy The deleveraging of the market has also made the space for thinking in the speculative market smaller and smaller. In other words: Wenzhou people's thinking mode has also been fully ended in China!
It can be summarized as follows: Wenzhou's development thinking benefited from the shortage of Chinese materials. At that time, China was in the seller's market. Wenzhou quickly occupied the domestic market through the extensive mode of “small commodities and big marketsâ€. Nowadays, there is a large surplus of production capacity, and China has rapidly transformed to In the buyer's market, value innovation has replaced barbaric growth and has become the most important core driver of the development of the times.
Wenzhou's courage and courage to dare to be the first in the world, in the early days of China's reform and opening up, almost people were murderers, and Buddhas blocked the Buddha. However, now that China is in the business of all, you are still going to take the lead, and the chances of success are very small. In addition: no matter how savvy, how hard to endure, as long as you give up the industry, you lose the root.
So: Two major lessons are very important:
First: industry cannot be marginalized;
Second: innovation is the real driving force;
China’s barbaric development stage has passed, and it will enter a higher level of development. In the future, it will rely on innovation to create value. This means that the society has a large number of material products, how to meet the people’s growing deep-seated needs. Is the problem that companies need to think about in the future!
China’s development has relied on courage and courage, and relies on knowledge and innovation in the future. We must change our minds!
In short, the rise and decline of Wenzhou, which proves the changes of the Chinese era, will definitely leave a strong stroke in the history of China's economy!
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