The National Information Center’s research report published exclusively on China Securities Journal on June 10th believes that the current monetary policy should continue to maintain a moderately loose situation, but the interest rate and deposit reserve ratio should not be adjusted significantly. At the same time, monetary policy needs to respond to potential stagflation risks in advance.
The report believes that due to the impact of energy raw material price trends, China may have a CPI rebound to a long-term average before GDP. It is expected that from the third quarter of this year, the pace of conversion from deflationary trends to inflation will accelerate.
The report said that the current interest rate and deposit reserve ratio should not be adjusted significantly, and should be stable in a suitable range. The interest rate cut is not the first choice for the central bank's monetary policy tools. It is a more effective measure than the interest rate cut through open market operations and fine-tuning of monetary policy. At the same time, the central bank needs to expand the issuance of central bank bills and stabilize the deposit reserve ratio to hedge the rapid growth of foreign exchange holdings.
The report believes that due to the impact of energy raw material price trends, China may have a CPI rebound to a long-term average before GDP. It is expected that from the third quarter of this year, the pace of conversion from deflationary trends to inflation will accelerate.
The report said that the current interest rate and deposit reserve ratio should not be adjusted significantly, and should be stable in a suitable range. The interest rate cut is not the first choice for the central bank's monetary policy tools. It is a more effective measure than the interest rate cut through open market operations and fine-tuning of monetary policy. At the same time, the central bank needs to expand the issuance of central bank bills and stabilize the deposit reserve ratio to hedge the rapid growth of foreign exchange holdings.
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