Core summary: This year is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is also a crucial period for building a well-off society in an all-round way. Industrialization, urbanization, and informatization are developing in depth. Domestic demand for non-ferrous metals is further expanding, and transportation, energy, affordable housing, urban infrastructure, and new rural construction are major. The implementation of the project will bring more market space for non-ferrous metals.
The new historical period has brought new development opportunities. Looking at the industrial operation of non-ferrous metals in the first half of this year, a series of new changes are taking place in China's non-ferrous metals industry. The growth of non-ferrous metal smelting products has slowed down, industrial development has shifted to improve operational quality and efficiency; profits have been further concentrated to enterprises with resources and energy; and the focus of fixed asset investment to the western region has been obvious.
Recently, the evaporation process of the 270,000-ton Bayer process alumina tapping transformation project of the first reinforced concrete frame structure evaporation plant in China was successfully put into use. After the plant is completed, it can save more than 50% of investment.
Data: steady increase in output, main business income maintains growth
Steady growth of ten non-ferrous metals production From January to June 2011, the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 16.5526 million tons, an increase of 7.27%. Among them, refined copper 2.519004 tons, an increase of 11.54%; original aluminum 8686.63 million tons, an increase of 4.4%; lead 2,191,100 tons, an increase of 23.5%; zinc 2,252,200 tons, an increase of 2.14%; nickel 86,100 tons, year-on-year The growth rate was 4.08%; tin 76,600 tons, up 6.89%; 锑89,100 tons, down 0.35%; magnesium 337,000 tons, up 3.58%; sponge titanium 31,200 tons, up 11.59%.
In June 2011, the average daily output of ten non-ferrous metals was 99,600 tons, an increase of 10.58% year-on-year and an increase of 9.76%. The top ten provinces and regions with ten non-ferrous metals production are Henan, Shandong, Yunnan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Guangxi, Shanxi, and Anhui. The output is 2.689 million tons, 1,365,500 tons, 1,333,700 tons, 1,266,300. Tons, 1,243,400 tons, 1,036,000 tons, 921,500 tons, 718,500 tons, 659,200 tons, 653,800 tons.
The main business income of the company maintained its growth trend In the first half of this year, the 73 key enterprises in the association achieved a main business income of 551.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points over the period from January to May. Among them, 21 copper and nickel enterprises realized a main business income of 287.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.04%; 20 aluminum enterprises realized a main business income of 160.94 billion yuan, an increase of 9.69%; 18 households of lead and zinc enterprises realized a main business income of 526.99 100 million yuan, an increase of 18.72%; 14 households of tungsten, molybdenum, tin and antimony rare rare earth enterprises to achieve a main business income of 50.828 billion yuan, an increase of 31.41%.
In the first half of 2011, the main business cost of 73 key enterprises in the association was 497.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. Among them, 21 copper and nickel enterprises realized the main business cost of 262.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.04%; 20 aluminum enterprises realized The main business cost was 144.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. The growth rate was 1.91 percentage points higher than the main business income during the same period; 18 lead-zinc enterprises realized the main business cost of 47.007 billion yuan, an increase of 19.99% over the same period. The income was 3.18 percentage points higher; the 14 rare tungsten, molybdenum, tin and antimony rare earth enterprises realized the main business cost of 43.555 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.21%.
The total trade volume increased by 27% compared with last year. In the first half of this year, China's non-ferrous metal import and export trade totaled 76.085 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.516 billion US dollars over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 27.73%. Among them, the import value in the first half of the year was 54.77 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.304 billion US dollars over the same period of 2010, an increase of 17.87%; the export value of the first half of the year was 21.315 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.212 billion US dollars over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 62.86%. The deficit in import and export trade in the first half of the year was 33.455 billion US dollars, which was roughly the same as that of the same period last year.
Among them, the total import and export volume in June was 13.109 billion US dollars, down 1.8% from the previous month. In June, the import volume was 9.282 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.82% from the previous month; the export value in June was 3.827 billion US dollars, a decrease of 9.59% from the previous month.
Fixed assets investment increased by 28% compared with last year. In the first half of 2011, the non-ferrous metals industry (excluding independent gold enterprises, the same below) accumulated a total of 194.724 billion yuan in fixed assets investment, an increase of 28.17% over the same period last year. In the first half of 2011, the fixed assets investment of the non-ferrous metals industry accounted for 1.56% of the total fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) in the country, and the growth rate was 2.57 percentage points lower than the national fixed asset investment.
In the first half of 2011, the state-owned fixed assets completed investment of 41.06 billion yuan, accounting for 21.09% of the fixed assets investment of the non-ferrous metals industry, and private investment fixed assets of 126.764 billion yuan, accounting for 65.1% of the fixed assets investment of the non-ferrous metals industry. .
Operational characteristics: slowdown in output growth, balanced development of industrial chain
The growth rate of smelting products slowed down. In the first half of 2011, the industrial added value of non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size increased by 12.3% year-on-year at comparable prices, which was 2 percentage points lower than the growth rate of national industrial added value during the same period; non-ferrous metals during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The average growth rate of industrial industrial added value was 3.9 percentage points lower. The output of ten non-ferrous metals was 16.553 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, which was 6.5 percentage points lower than the average growth during the 11th Five-Year Plan period.
Among them, the output of primary aluminum was 8.86 million tons, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 11.3 percentage points lower than the average increase during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period. The production of six kinds of concentrate metal content was 3.556 million tons, an increase of 11.7% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 3.9 percentage points higher than the average increase during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period. The output of alumina was 17.367 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, which was 9.7 percentage points lower than the average increase during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The output of copper was 4.776 million tons, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year. The growth rate was 2.9 percentage points higher than the average growth during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period. The output of aluminum products was 11.138 million tons, an increase of 25.5% over the same period of the previous year. The average increase was flat.
In the first half of this year, the main feature of non-ferrous metal production was the slowdown in the growth of smelted products, and the increase in mineral products and deep-processed products was significantly greater than the increase in smelted products. China's non-ferrous metals industry is accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure, from the extensive development of smelting production expansion to the balanced development of the industrial chain.
Profits are concentrated in resources and energy enterprises From January to May, 7,980 large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises (excluding independent gold enterprises) achieved a main business income of 1,446.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%. The realized profit was 65.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, which was 14.5 percentage points higher than the profit growth of the national industrial enterprises in the same period.
At present, the non-ferrous metal industry's profit growth is mainly due to the substantial increase in profits from the possession of resources and energy companies. From January to May, the sales profit rate of non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size was 4.52%. Among them, the profit margin of independent mining enterprises was 14.02%, up 1.26 percentage points year-on-year; the profit margin of smelting enterprises (including mines in joint ventures) was 3.98%, up 0.17 percentage points year-on-year; the profit margin of processing enterprises was 3.50%. The year-on-year decline was 0.13 percentage points. The profit margin of non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size was 6.98%, up 0.95 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the profit margin of independent mining enterprises was 15.08%, up 3.28 percentage points year-on-year; the profit margin of smelting enterprises (including mines in joint ventures) was 5.08%, up 0.88 percentage points year-on-year; the profit margin of processing enterprises was 7.44%. It increased by 0.17 percentage points year-on-year.
Fixed assets investment moved to the west from January to June, and the non-ferrous metal industry completed fixed assets investment of 194.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. The growth rate was 2 percentage points higher than the national fixed asset investment, but it was fixed by the non-ferrous metal industry during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The average increase in asset investment was 4.5 percentage points lower. Among them, the fixed assets investment in the 12 provinces and autonomous regions in the west was 81.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, which was 7.5 percentage points higher than the growth of fixed assets investment in the national nonferrous metals industry; 41.9% of the fixed assets investment in the national nonferrous metals industry. The proportion increased by 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year.
The planned investment in the newly started project of the non-ferrous metal industry was 246.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The planned investment amount of newly started projects in 12 western provinces and regions is 126.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. The growth rate is 16.8 percentage points higher than the planned investment of the new non-ferrous metal industry in the national non-ferrous metal industry; The proportion of 51.4% increased by 6.8 percentage points over the same period of last year. Xinjiang accounted for 16.7% of the investment in newly started projects of the national non-ferrous metal industry; Qinghai accounted for 15.2% of the investment in newly started projects of the national non-ferrous metal industry; Inner Mongolia accounted for 5.1% of the investment in newly started projects of the national non-ferrous metal industry; Guangxi accounted for the national color 4.9% of the investment in newly started projects in the metal industry.
The export volume of rare metal products increased significantly from January to June. The total import and export volume of non-ferrous metals in China was US$76.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%. The growth rate was 6.9 percentage points higher than the average growth during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period. Among them, the import value was 54.77 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.9% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 7 percentage points lower than the average growth rate during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period; the export value was 21.32 billion US dollars, up 61.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than the average during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period. The increase was 50.3 percentage points higher. The deficit in import and export trade was US$33.45 billion, which was the same as that of the same period last year, but the export volume of rare rare earth metals increased significantly.
Since 2011, although the export volume of rare metal products such as tungsten, antimony and rare earth has not increased significantly, the export volume has increased significantly. From January to June, the export value of antimony products was US$300 million, up 65.6% year-on-year; the export value of tungsten products was US$590 million, up 75.6% year-on-year; the export value of rare earth products was US$1.54 billion, up 9.3 times year-on-year.
Trend: complex domestic and international environment, non-ferrous metals prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels
In the second half of 2011, the domestic market demand for non-ferrous metals maintained a steady growth trend, and China's non-ferrous metal industry production and operation will continue to maintain a stable operation. It is estimated that the output of 10 non-ferrous metals will increase by about 10% in the whole year, among which the output of electrolytic aluminum will increase by less than 10%; the overall trend of economic benefits of non-ferrous enterprises will not change, but the benefits of independent electrolytic aluminum and lead-zinc smelting enterprises may be Continued decline; the fixed assets investment of the non-ferrous metals industry continues to show a shift to the regions with resources and energy in the west; under the combined effect of international financial fluctuations and rising costs of domestic raw materials and electricity, the prices of major non-ferrous metals in domestic and foreign markets will still be presented. The pattern of high volatility.
Jia Xing said that the domestic and international environment facing the non-ferrous metal industry in the second half of the year is still very complicated.
He analyzed that the current domestic and international environment facing the development of the national economy is still very complicated, with many unstable and uncertain factors. In the second half of the year, the country's macroeconomic policy orientation is to continue to maintain the continuity and stability of policies, to put the overall level of stable prices at the forefront of macroeconomic regulation and control, to enhance the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of policies, and to further handle the economic stability. The relationship between rapid development, adjustment of economic structure and management of inflation expectations, increase reform and innovation, accelerate the adjustment of economic structure and development mode, and promote sound and rapid economic development. There are still many uncertainties in the operation of the world economy in the second half of the year, especially the financial turmoil directly caused high prices of non-ferrous metals in the international market.
Problem: Trade frictions intensify Safety production situation remains grim
The rise of international trade protectionism In recent years, international trade protectionism has risen, especially with the expansion of China's import and export trade, trade friction is on the rise. Since 2009, there have been 8 trade frictions against non-ferrous metal products. In April and May of 2011, the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission successively made "anti-dumping and countervailing" final rulings on China's aluminum products. China's export of aluminum products was subject to high anti-dumping and countervailing duties. In July this year, the WTO made a final ruling on the US, EU and other v. China restrictions on bauxite, coke, fluorite, magnesium, manganese, silicon metal, silicon carbide, yellow phosphorus and zinc, and we believe that we limit 9 kinds. The export of raw materials is not in compliance with WTO regulations and agreements.
At the meeting, Jia Xing, the vice president and secretary general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, expressed regret. He said that the United States, the European Union and other accusations that China restricts the export of nine kinds of raw materials is actually to pursue their own interests, using the WTO platform to legalize the interests of irregular rules.
Environmental protection and safety production situation is still grim Since 2011, national and local environmental protection and safety production supervision departments have carried out management and strict law enforcement to protect heavy metal pollution and mine safety in the production of non-ferrous metals in order to protect people's lives and property. Special rectification. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association actively cooperates with relevant state departments in the special rectification of recycled lead and rare earth industries, assists in the investigation of hidden dangers, and carries out pollution control and safety education, so that the overall situation of industrial pollution control and safe production is relatively stable. A feasible rectification plan has also been implemented for environmental pollution and safety accidents that have occurred in the past few years. However, with the continuous expansion of industrial production scale, the current environmental protection and safe production situation of China's non-ferrous metal industry is still grim. There are still hidden dangers of environmental pollution and safety accidents in all aspects of mining, smelting and processing.
Jia Xing said that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association will continue to assist the relevant state departments in their active work, strictly control the pollution control and safety production, put the protection of people's life and health in the first place of development, and resolutely eliminate the harm through intensive and meticulous work. Major environmental pollution and safety incidents of people's life and health.
The price difference between copper and aluminum products is obviously different. The world's major non-ferrous metals supply is generally abundant. However, since 2011, the international market copper price has been running at a high level. From January to June, the average price was US$9,332/ton, up 30.3% from the same period of the previous year. The aluminum price trend in the international market is relatively weak. From January to June, the average price was 2572 US dollars / ton, up 19.1% over the same period of last year.
Since 2011, the price of major non-ferrous metals in the domestic market has been weaker than the international market. From January to June, the average price of refined copper was 70,641 yuan / ton, up 23.2% over the same period of last year; the average price of primary aluminum was 16,721 yuan / ton, up 5.4% over the same period of last year.
In recent years, international capital has been keen to speculate on derivative financial products, resulting in an increase in the price difference between refined copper and primary aluminum. In the 1980s, the price ratio of copper and aluminum products in the international market was 1:0.80; in the 1990s, it was 1:0.67; since 2000, it was 1:0.55; in January-May 2011, it was reduced to 1:0.27.
At the same time, in addition to the above problems, since 2011, China's non-ferrous metal industry is still facing many problems in its operation. First, domestic electricity prices have risen, resulting in rising production costs. Second, the development scale of advantageous resources such as tungsten, antimony and rare earth is still too large, and illegal mining has not been eradicated. Third, with the tightening of domestic liquidity, corporate financing costs have risen and financial costs have increased. In particular, loans to small non-ferrous metal processing enterprises are difficult, which seriously affects the production and operation of enterprises.
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