The first adjustment of refined oil prices is facing agrounding

April 10 will be the first price adjustment period after the introduction of a new pricing mechanism for domestic refined oil products. However, the current trend of international crude oil prices may make the first adjustment of refined oil products under the new mechanism face the possibility of being stranded.

The demand for refined oil products in off-season coincided with the introduction of a new pricing mechanism that has made traders in the refined oil market even more confused. The sales companies of PetroChina and Sinopec have also secretly ranted, and the wholesale of gasoline and diesel once again fell into the "freezing point."

Increase or less than 50 yuan / ton After the Qingming Festival, the new pricing mechanism for refined oil products will be implemented for the first time. On April 10, if the refined oil price adjustment window starts as scheduled, it will become the first refined oil price adjustment since the introduction of the new mechanism.

Since the highest retail price of refined oil was lowered on March 27, the international crude oil market experienced six consecutive gains. Then, under the pressure of poor economic data in Europe and the United States, international oil prices plunged by nearly 5% for three consecutive days.

As of the close of April 5, the London May Brent crude contract fell by $2.22, down 2.09% from the previous trading day.

Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan told Daily Economic News that during the domestic Ching Ming Holiday, crude oil suffered successive economic data and rising inventory pressure, and the price decline was hard to stop.

In accordance with the refined oil pricing and improvement mechanism, based on the domestic crude oil import structure and the settlement and affiliation varieties, Treasure Island selected four types of crude oil as reference, namely Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai and ESPO.

According to calculations, as of the seventh working day of April 7, the reference crude oil varieties (Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai, ESPO) had a rate of change of 0.6%, and the rate of increase was smaller than before the holiday.

The Zhuo Chuang Information Model estimates that compared with the average price of the previous 10 working days, WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.65% in nearly 8 working days, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.08%, Dubai, Xinta and Oman crude oil Respectively showing gains, only Brent crude oil spot showing a slight decline.

Han Jingyuan believes that the price adjustment window originally scheduled for April 10 will be closed temporarily due to an increase of less than RMB 50/ton or RMB 0.05/liter.

The new pricing mechanism for refined oil clearly stated that if “the price adjustment is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made and the cumulative or offset will be included in the next price adjustment”.

“Overall, as of now, domestic refined oil is still within the price increase range.” Chen Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said, “Up to the end of 10 working days, the domestic product oil adjustment rate may be less than RMB 50 yuan. Tons, but no adjustment is made."

The rate of change of the rate of change in the price of Anxun Siswang Energy's refined oil products shows that as of April 5, the rate of change index was 0.68%, and on April 10, the price adjustment rate was forecast to reach RMB 40/t. In the next few working days, the average price of Brent ** will drop to US$109/barrel. The increase in the retail price of refined oil products may approach the threshold of 50 yuan/ton, making it difficult to realize the retail price of refined oil products next week.

Han Jingyuan analyzes that if the price adjustment window is closed, the calculation period will be recalculated, and the next cycle time point will be delayed or will be April 24-25.

The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for gasoline and diesel middlemen who choose to wait and see product oils has made traders in the refined oil market even more confused. Almost all middlemen have stated that frequent adjustments in retail prices not only increase risk, but also do not adjust for two weeks. Big, speculative profits have been greatly reduced. In the coming period, they will choose to wait and see, and the replenishment cycle will also narrow to about a week.

Sinopec and CNPC are also secretly complaining because the overall tone of the refined oil market this year is oversupply. If speculative demand is suppressed by the new pricing mechanism, especially in the second quarter and early third quarter, the demand for diesel is off-season, rigid demand is not supported, and post-sales are not supported. The task is difficult to accomplish.

Due to the poor sales in March, the sales volume of the two giants around the country have a deficit of about 30%, and the sales progress of individual regions even completed only 50%.

According to An Xun, Sisuwang Energy estimates that due to the weak supply and demand relationship in the second quarter, the domestic diesel inventory is expected to remain at a level of more than 30 days, which means that domestic diesel resources will have a surplus of 2 million to 3.5 million tons per month.

The "two barrels of oil" refinery peaked during the period from the end of March to the middle of May. April was the lowest point of diesel supply in the second quarter. In June, supply rebounded to a record high.

“In April, the reduction in crude oil load due to overhaul was 2.51 million tons, and in May it was 1.71 million tons. In the second quarter of this year, the amount of crude oil processed in the refinery due to overhaul was almost the lowest in the past five years.” The analyst said.

At present, all parties in the refined oil market have disagreement about the trend of oil prices. In addition, the supply of gasoline and diesel in domestic markets is dominated by oversupply. Therefore, after the price adjustment, the volume of refined oil market is slightly better than that before the price adjustment, but it is still a light situation. .

April was the fiscal year of Europe and the United States, and the relative reduction in investment activities was not enough to support higher oil prices. Coupled with the frequent occurrence of debt crisis, international crude oil prices in April and May showed declines in recent years.

According to the above analysts, this has been the case in the past three years. In the second quarter of last year, the domestic retail price of refined oil products fell in three consecutive series, which severely weighed on the market. If the price of Brent ** declines in the second quarter of this year, or it may make it difficult for the domestic refined oil market to form an expectation of upward adjustment of retail prices, there will be no actual end-user demand support, and the lack of speculative demand operations will further reduce domestic demand. The diesel market worsens.

According to the data, on April 2 domestic domestic diesel trucks were priced at RMB 7972/ton, which was RMB 37/ton lower than the price adjustment on March 27, and the average price of GB 93# gasoline vehicles was RMB 9302/ton, down from March 27th. 23 yuan/ton.

Gao Chengsha, analyst at Zhongyu Information, pointed out that after the introduction of the new mechanism, the operation mode of large-scale arbitrage among middlemen was challenged. In order to avoid the acceleration of price fluctuation after the implementation of the new mechanism, the risk to the company’s profit is expected to be more Watch the market, reduce purchases and continue to release inventory. Under the influence of this depressed mentality, the market resource circulation speed is slow, and the prices of gasoline and diesel are weak.

As of March 31, the total number of commercial gasoline and diesel inventories of social wholesale companies in major provinces in China was 133,000 tons, which was a decrease of 2% from the previous half. Of which 53,000 tons of diesel, a decrease of 12% compared with half a month ago.