Should guide interest rate cuts to enter the real economy

The interest rate cut by the central bank is certainly not intended to save the stock market, nor is it to save the housing market, but it has produced huge effects in these two markets. This in turn shows that the relaxation of monetary policy has a very limited stimulatory effect on the real economy.

The central bank's first full-rate interest rate cut policy introduced in two years has reached the "full moon" on December 22. Recall that the introduction of the policy a month ago has aroused a strong response in the domestic market. Although the central bank has set this rate cut as a "neutral operation," it has actually changed the central bank's monetary policy this year. The "micro-stimulus" policy has opened up the imagination to the market to continue to cut interest rates and lower standards.

The direct incentive for this rate cut should be the key moment when the economic growth has reached the lower limit. In the past year, although the capital chain of enterprises has been highly tight, the government has been keeping its teeth firmly and insisting on not cutting interest rates. Why did the attitude change at the end of the year? The answer can only be to lubricate the economy with appropriate loosening of monetary policy. The central bank hopes to reduce the financing pressure of enterprises through interest rate cuts, thus giving the economy more vigor.

However, the reality is that after this interest rate cut, the pressure on corporate financing has not eased. This is mainly because the central bank has raised the free float space for deposit interest. At present, the deposit rates of the five major banks have basically reached the top, even though the central bank has substantially lowered the benchmark interest rate, but because the interest rate has basically reached the city and the DPRK, the banks can fully compensate for the increase in interest rates. It is difficult for small and medium-sized micro-enterprises that are most eager for funds to spend on deposit interest rates, and it is difficult to start such bargaining games with banks. Therefore, it is hard to say how much this interest rate cut will play in the real economy.

The most obvious effect of this rate cut is to directly trigger the strong rise of the A-share market. The Shanghai index easily crossed 3100 points. The direct effect of the skyrocketing stock market is that private funds that were originally away from the stock market began to gather again. However, the stock market is a kind of virtual economy, and its fiery market will still have to be supported by the real economy. However, in reality, the operation of the real economy in China will be difficult to change in the short term. Therefore, in the absence of real economic support, the market is mainly It is still the market that is piled up by capital, and there is still a considerable part of the funds that are formed by bluffs. No matter how far it can go, it will cause the stock market to accumulate huge risks, and when a large amount of money is attracted to the stock market, its withdrawal from the entire real economy is also obvious.

In the month when the central bank cut interest rates, China's real estate market has also changed. Before this interest rate cut, the housing prices in many cities in our country have seen a downward trend. In fact, this is precisely the goal that was hardly pursued by real estate control over the past few years. There is still a long way to go in relation to the purchasing power of the current housing prices and the just-needed people. However, the decline in house prices quickly caused the anxiety of local governments, and various rescue policies have already been introduced. Under such circumstances, interest rate cuts are considered to be a major positive for the real estate market, which has caused real estate developers to receive great encouragement. Some real estate projects that originally intended to cut prices have begun to stand firm, and this has been viewed as a practical effect of steady growth. This situation can only explain that, although the real estate regulation in recent years may seem like a large scale, it has not succeeded because it has not touched on the interests of the local government in the real estate market.

The interest rate cut by the central bank is certainly not intended to save the stock market, nor is it to save the housing market, but it has produced huge effects in these two markets. This in turn shows that the relaxation of monetary policy has very limited stimulative effects on the real economy, even if it is the so-called " It is also difficult to achieve the goal of controlling the flow of each credit. To achieve the goal of steady growth, the ultimate reliance is on the endogenous vitality released by the market. Therefore, we do not have to place too high expectations on the relaxation of monetary policy. Instead, we should hope to deepen the reform and gradually release the endogenous vitality of the shackled market.