Added new uncertainties to fundamentals. In the current market structure of Shanghai Aluminum, the supply and demand tension is the most basic and clear factor, as well as the confidence of the entire market, and it is the cornerstone of the trend of the entire market. According to the newer statistics, China's supply and demand and global supply and demand are still in a tight balance. Aluminium inventories on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the London Metal Exchange maintained a low level of decline.
As of November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reduced its inventory by 5,896 tons to 29,638 tons. This shows that domestic demand is still strong, and the high level of the domestic economy has led people to believe that this trend will not change within a month or two due to the adjustment of the country’s export policy. However, when it is expected that the expansion of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be implemented when the actual output is increased, when the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum will substantially affect the supply of the domestic market will become an uncertain factor affecting the financial confidence. The stocks of the London Metal Exchange are also in a declining trend. To this day (November 9th), the total of this week has been reduced by 475 metric tons. The inspiring economic situation in Europe has underpinned the further tightening of demand during the expected period. On November 8, the European Commission raised its economic growth expectation again. It is expected that the growth rate of the 12 countries in the euro zone will reach 2.6%, which is much higher than the 1.4% in 2005; the overall growth rate of the 25 EU countries is expected to reach 2.8%, which is also higher than that in 2005. 1.7%. The EU’s expectations for the euro zone and the entire EU in September were 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. The organization raised euro zone growth expectations in September and May respectively. At the same time, the European Commission expects the euro zone's growth rate to be 2.1% next year, and it will rise to 2.2% as consumer confidence increases by 2008. For the EU as a whole, the committee expects both growth rates to be 2.4% for the next and the next. The U.S. economy is worrying. In the previous quarter, the U.S. economic growth rate was 5.6%; in the second quarter it fell to 2.6%; in the third quarter, it was only 1.6%, which was a slower increase since early 2003. Although the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy—maintaining the 5.25% benchmark interest rate unchanged and the depreciation of the US dollar—supported the commodity market, how much the US property market has drastically reduced the drag on the U.S. economy, which in turn supports the overall commodity market? To suppress the commodity market, from a relatively new perspective, this has become an uncertain factor affecting global investment confidence. This is a clear picture of the supply and demand situation and the uncertainty of the supply and demand outlook. London Aluminium entered an adjustment trend after breaking $2,800/ton on October 30 (Beijing time). This week, due to the negative stimulus caused by the threat of interruption of the supply of basic metals, profit-taking of investment funds led to a decline.
In terms of the international and domestic markets, the supply and demand situation is good, but the outlook for supply and demand has added new uncertainties that have affected investor confidence. At present, the aluminum futures market, Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum, is the leading factor. Money trends.
Alumina shadows become dense. Newer statistics, for the first time, conveyed doubts and concerns about whether or not the declining alumina prices will soon be reflected in the general production cost of electrolytic aluminum, while delivering the expected declining prices. Metallurgical grade alumina pri FOB price (FOB, US$/ton) in the international market has been reduced to US$240/ton in October, and the proportion of aluminum futures prices on the London Metal Exchange has fallen to 9.1% in 2006. The ratio is 24.9% in the front and 10.7% in the third quarter. The difference between the production and consumption of alumina in the international market, namely, the supply surplus is also expanding, indicating that there is room for further decline in alumina prices. After China Aluminum lowered its alumina quotation again to unexpectedly 2400, it caused a two-day deep panic. Although the market has regained confidence after the substantial role of this factor has not yet arrived, it will become a new concern whether domestic alumina will decline further and fall again under the influence of the international market.
Reconsideration of the relationship between Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum. The author has observed and pondered for a certain period of time. At this time, it is proposed that there should be a clear and specific difference between the current market pattern of Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum under the same general trend. Aluminium maintains a stable upward trend of fluctuations, while Shanghai Aluminum has great fluctuations, especially under the influence of continuous domestic suddenness factors. The normal decline adjustments have evolved into two major short-term declines. The reason is that the supply and demand of aluminum in London is clearly continuing. However, domestic aluminum supply and demand will face release of such factors as production capacity after a tight balance. Due to a significant increase in export taxes, it is expected to increase domestic supply and ease tensions between supply and demand. For the time being, London Aluminium has clearly provided a lot of confidence in domestic aluminum, but the uncertainties in the international demand mentioned earlier make it unclear how long this support will last. The increase in the independence of the Shanghai aluminum market after its unprecedented expansion has also exacerbated this uncertainty.
In a nutshell, the dominant factor of Shanghai Aluminum remains the confidence of speculative funds; from the perspective of long-term stability of positions, financial confidence has remained stable for a long time; however, new international and domestic factors affecting the confidence of funds have been added. Confidence in funds has been increased by quite a bit of depth. After a large influx of Shanghai Aluminum's funds in early stages, it has stepped into a new paradoxical position. If new unclear negative factors do not reverse investment confidence, the large amount of money accumulated in the previous period will bring about substantial The increase, on the contrary, is very likely to reverse the rising pattern of Shanghai Aluminum.
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