In the past 15 years, there have been two disputes in the display area. Once around 2000, the color cathode ray tube (CRT) industry is facing an alternative crisis. Will the next mainstream be plasma display (PDP) or thin film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD)? There are different voices in the industry. After more than ten years of development, TFT-LCD has become the absolute mainstream in the display field. With the advancement of TFT-LCD and electroluminescence (EL) technology, active organic light emitting display (AMOLED) has also begun to be industrialized. In addition, display technologies such as Flexible Display and Laser Display are also emerging. At present, there has been a new round of debate in the display industry.
I. TFT-LCD has a long-term development potential The key to TFT-LCD industry emerging in the display field is that it is in line with the historical trend of semiconductor technology replacing vacuum electronics.
The history of the development of electronic devices is basically a history of semiconductor technology replacing vacuum electronics. The electronic information industry has undergone three great changes: the first occurred in the field of signals in 1947. Semiconductor devices represented by transistors and integrated circuits have gradually replaced vacuum electronic devices represented by electronic tubes and promoted the communications, computer, and software industries. The development of the Internet and the advent of the Internet era; the second alternative took place after the advent of TFT-LCD products in 1991. Semiconductor display devices represented by TFT-LCDs replaced vacuum electronic display devices represented by CRTs and became mainstream in the display field. The third replacement began in 1994 with the advent of white LED semiconductor lamps and the introduction of OLED lamps in 2012. Semiconductor lighting devices with LEDs and OLEDs as light sources are gradually replacing electric vacuum light sources such as incandescent lamps and traditional energy-saving lamps.
In the past decade or so, why TFT-LCD can develop into the mainstream of the market? I think: "The key to the success of the TFT-LCD industry in the display field is that it follows the historical trend of semiconductor technology replacing vacuum electronics." Fifteen years ago, in the face of CRT replacement crisis, BOE decided to enter a new display area and In the end, TFT-LCDs with long-term development potential were selected. With the industrialization of AMOLED and the development of new display technologies such as flexible displays in the future, people have raised new questions about the direction and path of the future development of the display industry. Can we answer from the perspective of philosophy in two sentences: First, from the CRT to the TFT-LCD is the technical interruption and the beginning; second, from TFT-LCD to AMOLED is the extension and development of technology. TFT-LCDs, AMOLEDs, and new display technologies, including Flexible Display, are based on semiconductor technology, and are collectively referred to as semi-displays.
Second, AMOLED is an extension of TFT technology AMOLED is an extension and development of TFT-LCD technology, and their technical correlation and resource sharing are as high as 70%.
We can give the semiconductor display the next definition: Semiconductor display is the collective name for display technology that independently controls each of the smallest display units through semiconductor devices. It has three basic features: one is the independent control of the state of each display unit by a semiconductor device such as a TFT array; the second is the use of amorphous silicon (a-Si), low temperature polysilicon (LTPS), oxide (Oxide), organic materials ( Organic, carbon material and other semiconductor materials; the third is the use of semiconductor manufacturing processes. The materials, equipment, devices, and application terminal industry chains associated with semiconductor display technologies and products are collectively referred to as the semiconductor display industry.
We can further illustrate the above definition by comparing the structure of TFT-LCD and AMOLED. With years of technological advances and market application drivers, TFT-LCD has evolved from a-Si to LTPS and Oxide. TFT-LCD consists of six parts: polarizer, color filter, liquid crystal, TFT array, polarizer, and backlight. The top-emitting AMOLED is composed of three parts: a sealing layer, an organic light-emitting layer, and a TFT array. However, the semiconductor materials of TFT arrays have changed, and they use LTPS or Oxide. Materials and processes have undergone revolutionary advances, and the device structure is also much simpler. However, the basic features and technological basis of semiconductor displays have not changed. Flexible displays are also similar, so AMOLED is an extension and development of TFT technology. And resource sharing up to 70%.
From a-Si TFT-LCD, LTPS TFT-LCD, Oxide TFT-LCD to AMOLED, there are two key driving forces for the development of the semiconductor display industry: first, technological progress, and second, market application. Market application is the most fundamental driving force. Although traditional a-Si TFT-LCDs are still advancing, they have generally failed to meet the requirements for improved product performance in market segments. LTPS TFT-LCDs, Oxide TFT-LCDs, and AMOLEDs have emerged. The appearance of these new display technologies has led to advances in materials, processes and equipment technologies. The advances in new materials, new processes and equipment technologies have accelerated the industrialization of the above-mentioned new display technologies and, in turn, further promoted the development of market applications.
Segment market applications depend on display technology and product performance characteristics and cost competitiveness. From the perspective of current display applications, the mainstream is still a-Si TFT-LCD; LTPS TFT-LCD is mainly used in high-end mobile products; Oxide TFT-LCD is mainly used in high-end tablet computers, notebook computers, monitors and televisions; LTPS AMOLED Mainly used in mobile phones and other high-end mobile products; Oxide AMOLED may be mainly used in TV and other large-size display products.
According to Displaysearch data, the total market for global display products in 2011 was US$111 billion, and in 2018 it is estimated at US$163.4 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.7%. Among them, a-Si TFT-LCD is still the mainstream, but it is gradually declining. The annual compound growth rate of LTPS TFT-LCD is 13%; Oxide TFT-LCD is 36%; LTPS AMOLED is 31%; Oxide AMOLED is 135%. This data reflects, to some extent, the basic trend of various types of technologies and products in the display industry.
Third, the integration of resources to achieve value-added to TFT-LCD, AMOLED, flexible display and other technology-related and resource sharing to maximize the ability to maximize investment value.
Advances in materials technology will greatly promote the development of new semiconductor display technologies and products, which in turn will be an opportunity for material manufacturers. Substrate materials will develop toward thinner, more high-temperature resistant, more environmentally friendly, and flexible; IC will develop towards SOC, COG, GOA, even "CPSI"; semiconductor materials will be from a-Si Developed to LTPS/Oxide, Organic/Carbon; the response speed of liquid crystal materials will be faster; the LED lamps in the backlight source will gradually decrease, and the lifetime and luminous efficiency of OLED materials will continue to increase. These require device manufacturers and material manufacturers to work together. In addition, equipment manufacturers will also get new opportunities. Advances in materials and process technology require equipment manufacturers to keep up with the times. These still require device manufacturers, material vendors, and equipment vendors to work together.
In recent years, panel prices have been declining, and global panel companies are in a difficult position. Although the overall industry situation has improved recently, it still faces difficulties. The flat panel display industry must jointly create a long-term, stable profit model and development mechanism. To create a long-term stable profit model and development mechanism, one is to promote value creation through technological innovation; the other is to realize value-added value through resource integration.
Regarding technological innovation and promoting value creation, I proposed a law in 2010: the law of survival. The core content of this law is: Every three years show that product performance more than doubled, companies can survive. This cycle will also be shortened. In order to live better, our goal is to work harder than the above requirements.
Traditional resource integration forms, generally through vertical or horizontal integration, generate synergies and realize value added. We must pay more attention to value-added value through connotative integration. For example, by maximizing the technological relevance and resource sharing of TFT-LCDs, AMOLEDs, and flexible displays, the investment value can be maximized. Do not divide in isolation and organically link these resources. Due to different market positioning, we must encourage and respect the difference in the development model, pay attention to the integration of connotation, and promote vertical and horizontal cooperation and win-win. This is also the significance of our proposed new definition of semiconductor industry. It is precisely because of the new definition of semiconductors that shows this industry that we can truly promote the realization of connotative integration.
For the development of the flat panel display industry, I would like to make three suggestions: First, use semiconductor display as an industry standard terminology to promote industry standardization; Second, promote international exchanges and cooperation in the field of semiconductor display, respect intellectual property rights, and work together for a win-win situation; Use resources to control investment rhythm and avoid disorderly competition.
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