Photovoltaic swarms mapping industry rejuvenation

Jinggong Science and Technology, a company specializing in solar photovoltaic equipment, has issued a notice a few days ago, saying that due to the slowdown in market demand for leading products such as solar photovoltaic equipment and delayed delivery of equipment, the company’s downstream customers’ financial situation has not been improved. Polysilicon raw materials and The market price of silicon wafers has been in a downward trend. The company revised its 2012 net profit loss amount from the previous expected loss of RMB 68 million to RMB 73 million to a loss of RMB 130 million to RMB 180 million. In 2011, when the photovoltaic industry was revived, Jinggong’s net profit reached an astonishing 400 million yuan. In just one year, it earned a profit of 400 million yuan and a loss of 130 million yuan to 180 million yuan.

Jinggong Technology is only a typical example of China's PV industry, and it is even difficult to squeeze into the “first bus” in the loss rankings. Recently, Chaoyue Sun, a listed company, issued its 2012 annual performance correction forecast and said that it has revised its previous forecast of “turning losses into profits” into losses. The estimated loss amounted to RMB 91-1.1 billion; Suntech Power, one of the leading companies in China's photovoltaic industry, had a loss in 2012. The quota has reached an astonishing 500 million U.S. dollars, equivalent to more than 3 billion U.S. dollars; another Chinese solar energy research and development giant, LDK Solar, has lost almost to bankruptcy.

Interestingly, just a few years ago, the photovoltaic industry was a star industry that many domestic companies rushed to enter. The investment enthusiasm of this wave of photovoltaic industry began in 2007. At that time, the price of polysilicon increased from US$66/kg to US$400/kg, and the price of PV products rose accordingly. Under the temptation of high returns, a large amount of capital flowed into the photovoltaic industry. In 2008, the number of photovoltaic companies in China was less than 100, and it has grown to more than 300 at present, reaching 500 at the peak. The end result of a large amount of funds entering the photovoltaic industry is that China’s photovoltaic industry’s capacity rapidly accounts for more than 70% of the world’s total. The top ten PV module manufacturers in China have taken the top five. The consequence of this is that at present, China's photovoltaic industry's full-load capacity is nearly 60 GW, but in 2012, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics will not exceed 30 GW. Meanwhile, in the next three years, the newly installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic power generation will be only 3 GW to 5 GW per year. .

We are not discussing how miserable the current status of China's photovoltaic industry is. We are discussing why there are so many funds that are willing to enter the industry in succession. What is behind the "flock of bees"? The ups and downs of the photovoltaic industry reflect a kind of helplessness of China's private capital, that is, they cannot get a slice of the monopoly industry and have to chase the hot spot for profit maximization.

The gross margin of the photovoltaic industry is used to indicate that in 2004, the gross profit margin of the polysilicon industry was basically maintained at 30%. By 2007, this gross margin level rose by about 70%. By 2009, it will basically return to a level of about 35%. . In the case of Chaori Solar, the city's top company, the gross profit margin of its polycrystalline solar modules fell to 26.74% at the end of 2010 and to 19.94% at the end of 2011. In mid-2012, it slipped further to 19.24%. Another photovoltaic company's Tianwei changeable financial data showed that its gross profit margin for photovoltaic products at the end of 2011 was still 21.35%, and by the middle of 2012, this gross margin had become a negative 51%. It can be seen that China's photovoltaic industry has entered such a turbulent cycle. When the products are made profitable, everyone invests. Everyone invests in excess production capacity. When there is a surplus, the entire industry is losing money. The entire industry is like a gust of wind.

Why is this? In addition to the change in the gross profit margin, it is true that private funds do not have a good investment. Monopoly industries such as banks can maintain a gross profit margin of 50-60% for the year, and few private enterprises can get involved. This is the source. In addition, China’s management of monopoly-owned state-owned enterprises is relatively in place, but in the realm of complete competition, there is simply no systematic management idea, allowing the market itself to frantically destroy itself. The highest end of the social profit pyramid. The third reason is that Chinese companies have no way to enter monopoly enterprises and have no systematic and effective management under the market mentality of quick success. Everyone wants to share a share of the highest gross profit margin. The resulting competition is the most original and most brutal. Everyone is not the core technology, but the capital and speed, which is the competition between fast fish and slow fish. Inevitably a glory and glory, a loss and loss.

Photovoltaic industry is just a typical example of the status quo of China's industry. It is not the only one. Previous mobile phones and computers have already gone through such a path. Nowadays, rare earth and e-commerce are following the same path. This should also be something we must pay attention to. If each industry is undergoing a disorderly and circular development in this ups and downs, the end result is that China’s physical industry and enterprises will never break through the road of technology, and will always be able to achieve speed and survival through quick success and instant benefits. upset. The rejuvenation of the industry can only be empty talk!