Photovoltaic industry's spring surviving variables

No matter what the final conclusion of the event, Suntech's “Donate Gate” incident will undoubtedly have a negative impact on it. This is not just an issue of integrity and reputation. Businesses that thrive and have clear prospects should avoid doing risky things.

For a long time, China's photovoltaic industry has adopted the “two out” development model. Nearly 80% of raw materials are imported from abroad, and more than 90% of photovoltaic cell module products are exported to foreign countries. In the past five years, the development of global PV industry blowouts has promoted the successful listing of 13 Chinese PV companies in the United States. The solar modules that flow from their production lines account for half of the world's total. More importantly, 95% of these products are sold to the international market. The supporting policies of the EU countries on the photovoltaic industry are undoubtedly the domestic solar photovoltaic companies' rapid development in the past five years, and the EU has absorbed 75% of China's export PV modules.

For such a new industry as the photovoltaic industry, policy support is an important support for its early development. Photovoltaic support and subsidy policies in Germany and other countries have effectively encouraged the confidence of the industry in the construction of photovoltaic power plants and also contributed to the leap-forward development of China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry. However, since the financial crisis, the tightening of the photovoltaic industry support policies in the major EU countries has caused a major negative impact on most of China’s export-oriented PV manufacturers.

What is even more worrying is that during the years of significant expansion of the photovoltaic industry, the number of domestic manufacturers of photovoltaic modules has also continued to increase to several hundred. This has not only created an extremely fierce competitive pattern, but also caused price reductions due to competition and scale. As a result, the profits of PV module manufacturers have been no longer comparable, and the current price of solar PV modules has dropped to US$1.4/W. Compared with the prices of US$3.5/W in 2008, the profits of manufacturers have dropped sharply. However, the rise in the price of silicon raw materials undoubtedly caused the photovoltaic industry manufacturers to worsen their situation. At present, the supply gap of silicon materials is still large. Photovoltaic device manufacturers can be said to fall into a trapped situation.

For PV module manufacturers, the current few good news is that the Chinese government's plans for clean energy and its policy preferences for the photovoltaic industry have sent a start signal to the domestic PV market. Moreover, from a quantitative point of view, China is undoubtedly the market with the greatest potential, far more than the European market. Whether it is the introduction of the "Golden Sun" demonstration project subsidy policy or the introduction of the unified photovoltaic power tariff of the national photovoltaic power generation, it will boost the rapid development of China's photovoltaic power generation.

China's plan for solar power generation is: By 2015, China's PV installed capacity target will reach 10GW, and by 2020, the target will be at least 50GW. The implementation of these policies and plans will form a huge demand for PV modules in China.

However, this seemingly optimistic outlook also has many uncertainties. It is also the spring of the so-called domestic photovoltaic power generation industry, which is not necessarily the spring of photovoltaic manufacturers. why?

First, the competitive landscape of domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry has already taken shape. A large number of state-owned and private enterprises have entered the field of photovoltaic manufacturing. Under the circumstances that overseas markets have shrunk, whether the domestic market, which has just been opened, can absorb such large production capacity will be a challenge for photovoltaic manufacturers.

Second, after the start of the domestic market, it is likely to bring about major changes in the photovoltaic industry. At present, the industry’s dominance has gradually shifted from upstream PV module manufacturers to downstream power developers. Therefore, this has led to a series of changes in industry rules, competition, and business models. The impact on the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is unprecedented, and it is very likely that photovoltaic manufacturers will not be able to reproduce the myth of rapid growth before 2008.

Finally, the recent consensus that the PV industry's largest photovoltaic power generation with the best interest in the photovoltaic industry may have problems. The benefits of the National Development and Reform Commission's single power tariff for photovoltaic power generation are simple, but it may lead to centralized construction of better resources. Basically, it is in the northwest, which will put a lot of pressure on the power grid. If it does not solve the grid cost problem, it may take the old road of wind power. . Fully estimating the transmission and distribution costs of the power grid is an important guarantee for avoiding the problem of photovoltaic access to similar Internet access. With the development of the scale of photovoltaic power generation, the impact on the safe and stable operation of the power grid will continue to increase.

It can be seen that there is still uncertainty in the photovoltaic industry market in the future: neither can we hope too much for the market's maturity, nor should we focus entirely on capacity expansion. The contest for new energy is basically a technical contest. For companies such as Wuxi Suntech, they still need to develop high-quality, high-conversion efficiency and lower-cost battery technologies. Only when they master better technologies and produce better products can they Eliminated in fierce competition.