Few people have foreseen that the price of photovoltaic products will fall so fast this year, so the whole industry will quickly approach the edge of shuffling after just completing a full blowout year.
After the Spring Festival, the global monocrystalline silicon wafer leader Longji once again announced that the price of silicon wafer products has been greatly reduced: the price of 180um thickness has dropped from 4.8 yuan per piece in the original domestic market and 0.67 US dollars from overseas to 4.55 yuan and 0.63 US dollars. This is the fourth round of price cuts by Longji this year. At this point, the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has fallen by nearly 20% this year. The industry believes that the current price of silicon wafers and battery chips has fallen below the cash cost of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the production and production areas have been rapidly expanded. The industry is shuffling.
Stumbled wafer price
At the end of last year, Longji 180um monocrystalline silicon wafers were also reported at 5.6 yuan/piece. However, from January 1 this year, it first lowered the price by 0.2 yuan/piece. After that, it carried out three rounds of price cuts. The price plunged 1.05 yuan/piece in just two months, a drop of 18.75%.
After Longji announced the new price, other monocrystalline wafer manufacturers had to follow up, and the market price came to 4.5 yuan / piece to 4.55 yuan / piece.
During this period, the price of polycrystalline silicon wafers was simultaneously lowered, from 4.7 yuan / piece to 3.8 yuan / piece.
"Price cuts are still to give everyone a full confidence. Because the on-grid tariffs will be lowered, the investment enthusiasm of the downstream will decline. Only the upstream price cuts will make the downstream feel cost-effective, and the investment cost will be reduced. The investment enthusiasm of everyone can come up." Longji Chairman of the Board of Directors Zhong Baoshen explained in an exclusive interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporter that the photovoltaic industry should continue to reduce prices in order to continue its development. "The market is big, the industry has prospects. The move is to make the market bigger, not to sell this month's wafers. At present we have less than one week of inventory."
However, compared with last year, the gross profit margin of Longji shares did drop significantly after the price reduction of silicon wafers. According to Zhong Baoshen, the current gross profit margin is around 20%. The data shows that the company's gross profit margin was as high as 38% in the second quarter of last year and remained at 34.83% in the third quarter.
Regarding whether the future wafers will be further reduced, Zhong Baoshen said that it depends on the entire industry chain, including the supply of upstream silicon materials and the demand of the downstream market. "When the silicon material falls, the gross profit margin can be restored."
"As we all know, the profit of the wafer segment last year was very high. This is reflected in the excellent performance of Longji. The recent fluctuations in wafer prices are a normal market regulation." Director of Shandong Airlines Energy Co., Ltd. Chang Dinglei told the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter that it is foreseeable that the price reduction of the silicon wafer will directly drive down the price of downstream battery chips and components, and the installation of the terminal power station should be a big advantage - it will offset the power station caused by the subsidy decline at the end of last year. Revenue reduces losses.
SMEs cut production and stop production area
Despite this, under the leadership of leading companies to cut prices, the whole industry is still caught in an indescribable panic, and some SMEs have already faced a loss dilemma.
According to a researcher at Bohai Securities, the above situation was caused by the combination of the two factors of “specially weak off-season†and “strong price last yearâ€. At the end of last year, the high profit margin of leading manufacturing companies also provided a large space for price reduction.
"At the current price level, the price of silicon wafers and battery sheets has fallen below the cash cost of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the area of ​​production reduction and production suspension has expanded rapidly. We judge that the price of the industrial chain is in an accelerated state, and the silicon material expected after the holiday. The price decline will gradually ease the pressure on the downstream cost side, and the new staged supply and demand balance is expected to be gradually reached in March,†the researcher said.
However, in Ding Wenlei's view, although many people are saying that the industry should be shuffled, according to the policy guidance, market changes and industry response in the past few years, the installed capacity of terminal power stations is still expected to maintain a substantial growth year by year.
"For this year's installed capacity, I personally conservatively predict that the overall should still exceed the 53GW installation last year. This is due to the emergence of distributed forces, while the photovoltaic poverty alleviation, front-runner base has about 10 to 15GW of installations. "Ding Wenlei said.
SOLARZOOM new energy think tank expert Ding Ya told the Shanghai Securities Journal that there is a risk of overcapacity in the silicon wafer. On the one hand, since the second half of last year, the slice of polycrystalline silicon wafers has been sliced ​​from mortar to diamond, and the passive expansion of polycrystalline silicon has emerged. On the other hand, mainstream monocrystalline silicon wafer companies and vertically integrated enterprises are expanding the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers. In the case of constant or even falling total demand, there will inevitably be overcapacity and price decline.
For the downstream, this will reduce the cost of the system and stimulate some of the demand, but the final demand depends on the policy and financing. For upstream polysilicon, once a large number of wafers are reduced or stopped, the polysilicon supply and demand situation will change and the price will drop. This trend has begun to appear.
According to data obtained by the reporter from the silicon industry branch, the transaction price of solar energy first-class dense materials in January has been maintained at 153,000 yuan / ton. However, since the beginning of February, the price of polysilicon has fallen in a cliff-like manner. The price drop in the first week reached 12.7%, and then fell to 126,600 yuan/ton at the end of February, a drop of 18.6%.
Modern sweeping linear style. the towel racks are finished in high quality white finish. The only place to dry your towels neatly. It is not just about functionality and design, but also quality: this rail will last for years to come.
Towel Rack,Hand Towel Holder,Towel Bar,Towel Hanger
Kaiping city Pinsen Sanitary ware Co.,Ltd , https://www.corpthen.com