Abstract : The import qualifications are relaxed, the monopoly of iron ore traders is over; the China Railway Corporation starts the freight reform, and the railway freight force pushes the price. The reform is conducive to reducing the total logistics cost of the whole society and promoting the development of the entire logistics industry; The overall downturn in the industry, Caofeidian...
Core Tip: Import qualifications are relaxed, iron ore traders monopolize the end; China Railway Corporation starts freight reform, railway freight force pushes a price, reform is conducive to reducing the total logistics cost of the whole society, promoting the development of the entire logistics industry; steel industry The overall downturn, after eight years of Caofeidian base into a package project, the loss has exceeded 10 billion; Baosteel Zhanjiang project is still piling for one year, or afraid to become "Cao Fudian second." [hot spot reading]
â— Baosteel Zhanjiang project is still piling or afraid of becoming "Cao Fudian Second" for one year.
    The Baosteel Zhanjiang project, which has received much attention from the outside world, was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission on May 25, 2012. Construction started on May 31 of that year. During the period, the media reported that the work was stopped. On May 17 this year, Baosteel Zhanjiang Steel again The high-profile announcement announced that the main project will start construction. After a lapse of one month, the reporter went to the Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Base to visit the site and found that since the announcement of the start of construction last year, Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Plant is still in the state of piling, and has not seen large-scale construction. The industry believes that in recent years, domestic steel overcapacity, steel mills operating conditions are difficult, under such circumstances, does not support the construction of large projects, coupled with the Shougang Caofeidian project has suffered huge losses, so Baosteel only intends to control the progress of the project to prevent Follow the footsteps.
    Interpretation: The Caofeidian project, which was once a sensation, was the new steel base after Shougang moved out of Beijing. It belongs to the coastal sea-type steel base, and the high-end design products were built at the time when the demand for steel rose sharply. However, due to the deterioration of the industry situation, the expansion of the production of sheet metal market is not satisfactory. In addition, the bank debt burden of enterprises is too heavy, and has lost more than 10 billion yuan. Baosteel Co., Ltd. mainly produces sheet metal, but now the downstream automobile, machinery and shipbuilding industries are hard to see, and this has forced Baosteel to act cautiously. The investment in Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Project Base has been compressed by more than 40%, and the construction progress is slow. This is inseparable from the current situation of overcapacity in steel production and difficult operation of steel enterprises.
◠China’s economy continues to bottom out, and the probability of relaxation is small.
    The Chinese economy continues to bottom out. The PPI fell more than expected, and the credit data was far below market expectations. The macro data in May confirmed that China's economic performance in the second quarter was worse than that in the first quarter, and the risk of economic downturn is still increasing. Although the call for interest rate cuts has become more and more fierce, at present, there is little hope. In the short term, China is unlikely to introduce easing policies to become mainstream judgments.
Interpretation: In May, the PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, which has been falling for 15 consecutive months, and once again fell sharply during the peak season. In April, the PPI fell by 2.6% year-on-year. The PPI's unexpected decrease in the two consecutive months during the industrial activity peak season showed that the demand of the industrial end remained at a relatively weak state. Interest rate cuts will not help slow down long-term hot money inflows, and may even fuel inflation and real estate price increases, further exacerbating internal liquidity allocations and driving external funds, and the leadership has repeatedly stated that China should focus on the quality of growth. Rather than speed, China is unlikely to introduce easing policies in the short term.
ã€related news】
â—The iron ore import qualification is abolished behind
    "After July 1st, as long as you have the right to import and export, you can apply for an automatic import license for iron ore. There are no other auditing standards. The qualification review has been cancelled..." The Ministry of Commerce issued an automatic import license for iron ore. After the notice of online application, the staff of the License Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce responded with great enthusiasm to the reporter. This means that the iron ore import qualification review that began in 2005 will be abolished, and at the same time, problems and chaos that are bred by import qualifications are gradually emerging.
â—In May, the first ship price of China's new ship orders in the world has fallen to the bottom.
    Continuing the good trend of new orders from January to April, the latest news from China's new shipbuilding index network, China's new orders received in May still rose sharply, ranking first in the world in terms of deadweight tons. Analysts pointed out that the global price of ships has fallen to the bottom, and it is now a good time to book a bargain. Data show that from January to May, global new ship orders totaled 40.67 million DWT, up 70% year-on-year. Among them, in May, Chinese shipyards undertook a total of 4.04 million DWT, an increase of 73% from the previous month, surpassing South Korea and Japan, ranking first in the world. The Chinese shipyard has undertaken a total of $1.098 billion in new ship orders. The Korean shipyard has undertaken orders for new ships of 2.39 million deadweight tons and 1.269 billion US dollars. The Japanese shipyard has undertaken orders for new ships of 730,000 dwt and $452 million.
â— Railway freight reform, the implementation of China's railway reform has entered the deep water area
    The reform of railway freight transport organization will officially kick off today. This is the first major market-oriented reform implemented by China Railway Corporation in the past three months, which marks that the railway freight transport will go all the way to the market. In the future, the railway freight handling procedures will be greatly simplified, and the “door-to-door†full-service logistics service and the “one-price†charge will be implemented, and the high-speed rail express business will also be launched. According to the analysis, the railway freight reform is conducive to reducing the total logistics cost of the whole society and promoting the development of the entire logistics industry.
[panel summary]
    On the 14th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 105.90 points to close at 15,070.18 points, a decrease of 0.70%; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 21.81 points to close at 3,423.56 points, a decrease of 0.63%; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 9.65 points. At 1,626.71 points, the decrease was 0.59%. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose $9.80 to close at $1,387.60 per ounce, or 0.7%. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) light crude oil futures for July delivery rose 1.16 US dollars to close at 97.85 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.2%. The US dollar index fell 0.11 to close at 80.64, a drop of 0.13%. Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose $29 to close at $7091, or 0.41%.
[Market analysis]
    On the 14th, the snail 10 opened at 3419, and the whole day oscillated around the 3400 platform. The highest in the day was 3432, the lowest was 3382, and the price was 3,424, up by 0.03%. The funds were neutral, the transaction volume was slightly enlarged from the previous day, and the position increased by 4.5. Thousand hands. On the technical day, the K-line low volatility received the cross of the cross, the market is still suppressed by the 5th and 10th moving averages, the KDJ indicator is diverging upwards, the MACD indicator is passivated, and the green column is reduced. The spot is more stable and less tune. In operation, the market is stable, and both long and short sides operate in the intraday band. The snail shock during the material period has a general impact on the spot.
[weekly stock]
    Last week, the total inventory of steel society fell 1.3% to 17.609 million tons, thread stocks 7.84 million tons fell 1.96%, down 1.9% in the previous week; wire and steel 21.12 million tons fell 2.4%, the previous week fell 4.5%; hot rolled 4.56 million tons fell 0.5 %, down 2.5% in the previous week; cold rolling 1.60 million tons down 0.9%, the previous week down 0.1%; medium plate 1.46 million tons down 1.0%, the previous week increased by 1.3%. We believe that due to the recent increase in the shutdown of steel mills, and the pessimism expected by the middlemen, the enthusiasm for getting goods is low, and the inventory of finished products has declined. In view of the fact that the current terminal demand has not improved, the current resource consumption rate is slow, and the overall inventory decline has gradually narrowed. It is expected that the steel market will be stable and weak this week.
[Steel Market News]
â—Ore:
    The iron ore market was running smoothly on the 16th. In terms of the Platts Index, the general index rose by US$3 on the 14th, and the current 62% Australian powder index is US$113.75/ton. Steel billets rose by RMB 50/ton over the weekend, but the spot market of the port did not change much. The steel mills continued to purchase small quantities on demand. The buyers and sellers still took a wait-and-see attitude, and the short-term import mines were weak. At present, the transaction price of Shandong port: Yang Di powder 710-720, special powder 720, Ba 870 or so, PB powder 800-820, super special 700. In terms of quotation, Tianjin Port is now 58% Yangdi powder 740-750 yuan / ton, Australia PB powder 810-830 yuan / ton, 63.5% printing powder 860-870 yuan / ton, Rizhao port 60% Indonesian sea sand mine 580-590 Yuan/ton, 58% Iranian magnetite 730-740 yuan / ton, 65% card powder 910-920 yuan / ton. The domestic mining market has not experienced significant fluctuations, steel mill prices have remained stable, and market changes have not been referenced. However, due to the large area of ​​mine shutdown, the resources are relatively tight, and the price decline is more difficult. However, the fundamentals have not been significantly improved, and the rise is also difficult. It is expected that the short-term domestically produced ore prices will remain stable, with some individual adjustments supplemented. Now Zunhua 60% coarse powder 660-680; 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 770-780; 62.5% pellets 910 or so; Qian'an 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 780-790.
â—Coke:
    On the 14th, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke to the factory price of 1315-1325 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price of 1260 yuan / ton, Xingtai quasi-level metallurgical coke factory tax-included price 1260-1300 yuan / ton, Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke factory price tax 1250-1380 yuan / ton, Linyi second metallurgical coke factory price tax 1100-1130 yuan / ton, Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke factory price including 1050 Yuan/ton, Huaibei secondary metallurgical coke ex-factory price includes 1,300 yuan/ton, Qitaihe second-grade metallurgical coke ex-factory tax price is 1,300-1,350 yuan/ton, and Yinchuan three-grade metallurgical coke ex-factory price is 880 yuan/ton. Tianjin Port's secondary metallurgical coke warehouse price is 1380-1420 yuan / ton, the coke market continues to be sluggish, the general market, the market mentality is pessimistic, the downstream is difficult to see signs of improvement, will continue to drag the formation of the price, it is expected that the market outlook is difficult to change.
â—Steel billet (Tangshan):
    During the weekend, Tangshan finished products were active, downstream and merchants actively purchased blanks, and the billet market was in good condition. The price rose by 50. At present, Changli tax is sent to Tangshan 2970; Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglongpu carbon tax-included factory 2950, ​​dealers bare price 2830
â—Building materials:
    On the 16th, the price of the third-grade earthquake-resistant large snail in Beijing market was 3,400 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day; the Shanghai market, the second-class large snail, 3230-3260 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou market is wide Steel secondary snails 3,450 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day.
â—Board:
    On the 16th, the Shanghai market hot-roll closing price was 3400-3430 yuan / ton, less in the city, Tianjin market hot-roll closing price was 3350-3360 yuan / ton, the market turnover was light, Lecong market hot-roll closing price 3520 Yuan/ton, the market price has not fluctuated.
[Today's forecast]
â—Building materials:
    On the weekend, the billet was boosted, and the North once again took the lead to stop falling and rebound. The cumulative increase was 20-60 yuan/ton. The shipments improved and the market mentality boosted. However, some market demand is still unsatisfactory. Steady and take an aggressive strategy. It is necessary to pay close attention to whether the billet can continue to explore the trend of the snail. It is expected that the price of the third-grade earthquake-resistant large snail in Beijing market will be 3,400 yuan/ton, which is flat compared with the previous day; the Shanghai market has two-day large snails of 3230-3260 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day; Guangzhou market Guanggang II Grade large snail 3450 yuan / ton, stronger than the previous day.
â—Board:
    In terms of market, there were fewer merchants in the market on weekends, and the market transactions were relatively light. Traders basically maintained a wait-and-see attitude. However, the increase in billet on Saturday had an impact on North China. The resources of a few cities were significantly reduced, but the shipments were even more deserted. Considering that the downstream demand is not improving, the market price lacks the upward momentum, and the traders' expectations for the downgrade of the saddle, the first and the local steel are stronger, and it is expected that the national hot coil will be stable. The mainstream price of 5.5mm general volume in Shanghai market is 3400-3420 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 5.5mm Tanggang in Tianjin market is 3350-3360 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 5.5mm Liugang in Lecong market is about 3520 yuan/ton.
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