The year 2009 is nearing completion, taking stock of the economic performance of the machinery industry for a year, and the overall performance is satisfactory. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the growth of major economic indicators of the machinery industry has experienced a sharp decline, creating the largest decline in recent years. By February 2009, the growth rate of major economic indicators hit a record low in the past seven years. And bottoming out. Since then, in response to the severe impact of the international financial crisis, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have fully implemented a package of plans, including the implementation of adjustment and revitalization plans for ten key industries such as steel, equipment manufacturing, and automobiles, as well as home appliances, motorcycles and motorcycles. The expansion of domestic demand policies in some areas such as agricultural machinery subsidies and the implementation of the package plan are obvious. Under this background, the domestic demand market is gradually picking up, the machinery industry is beginning to bottom out, and the growth rate of industrial output value and industrial added value is steadily rising month by month. It achieved a growth rate of two percentage points higher than the industrial average and made outstanding contributions to the country's goal of “guaranteeing growthâ€. It can be said that the foundation of economic growth in the machinery industry is gradually solid.
With the arrival of the end of 2009, the development trend of the machinery industry in 2010, whether it can continue to continue this year's rebound momentum and steady growth, has become the focus of everyone's attention. Below we analyze the development trend and speed of the machinery industry in the coming year on environmental factors at home and abroad.
1. The foreign environment is generally better, but it is still full of uncertainty. The quality of the global economy is not only related to the trend of the national macro economy, but also directly affects the development of China's machinery industry, especially the level and speed of foreign trade imports and exports.
At present, the world economy has begun to show signs of bottoming out. The overall trend is already good. The foreign trade market is expected to stop continuing to decline. This is a positive signal for the development of China's machinery industry. However, the recovery of the world economy is a slow and tortuous process. There are still many uncertainties and uncertainties in the development of the international economy.
First, the possibility of a “W†trend in the global economy still exists. Globally, although the economy has begun to recover, there is another view that “sustainable recovery†will not happen soon, and there is still the possibility that economists believe that the economy has a “W†trend. Looking back at the Great Depression, the US economy had a "double dip" trend after the recession. The global economic recession is extraordinary, and the crisis has left "serious scars" and will affect global supply and demand in the coming years.
Second, large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus policies of foreign governments are likely to withdraw. The reason why the global economy has bottomed out in such a short period of time is inseparable from the large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus policies of various governments. The government regulation has largely replaced the market regulation and stimulated the economic recovery. . Once governments are unwilling or unable to opt out of paying for the financial crisis, the impact on the global economic recovery will be enormous, and it is not impossible to see a turning point in the economic recovery.
Third, international trade protectionism has risen and has spread and spread. Despite the signs of economic recovery in the developed countries, the current international trade protectionism has risen, trade friction with China has intensified, and it has continued to expand and spread. Therefore, China's machinery industry's overall export growth is not optimistic. Although the external demand market is expected to see a recovery growth, it is unlikely to increase significantly. Therefore, the export market will not be too optimistic next year. However, because of the low base this year, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to rebound.
Fourth, global inflation and the world economy are slowing down. With the slowdown of world economic growth, inflation has also shown a trend of globalization. With the sharp rise in the prices of commodities such as oil, energy and agricultural products in the international market, most countries and regions are facing increasing inflationary pressures. The International Monetary Fund recently warned that global inflation has become a major threat to the world economy, and after the global credit market crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, it has become the primary problem that countries need to face.
Fifth, the sovereign credit crisis has begun to plague the world. After a year of global financial crisis, Dubai has a debt crisis. Since then, sovereign credit ratings of Portugal, Greece, Spain and other countries have been declined. US public debt is rising, credit risk in Central and Eastern Europe is too large, and British sovereign credit is warned. The solvency of the economy has declined, and so on. The debts of several countries have frequently issued early warning signals, and the sovereign credit crisis will become a major obstacle to the global economic recovery in the coming year.
In addition, the unemployment rate is still high, the “deleveraging†of financial institutions has not been completed, consumer tightening days, and high debts are all negative factors affecting the world economic outlook. While affecting the direction of the world economy, the above factors are also affecting the economic trends of China's macroeconomic and mechanical industries, especially the development of foreign trade imports and exports.
2. The overall domestic environment continues to improve. (1) The Central Economic Work Conference has boosted the confidence of economic growth. The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for economic work next year: continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and expand domestic demand to increase consumption. Focusing on demand, relying on the steady advancement of urbanization, optimizing the industrial structure, and making efforts to make significant progress in economic restructuring. The Central Economic Work Conference also proposed six major tasks for next year: steady growth, structural adjustment, consolidation of agriculture, rural areas, deepening physical reform, stable export, and protection of people's livelihood.
The convening of the meeting eliminated the market's concerns about policy uncertainty, played a stable policy and set people's minds, and enhanced the society's confidence in the steady growth of the economy.
It is expected that the macro economy will continue the trend of recovery this year. The policy-led recovery will begin to shift to an economic recovery. The economic climate will continue to rise and will see stronger growth.
(2) Macroeconomic policies continue to maintain stability and continuity First, the Central Economic Work Conference has confirmed that macroeconomic policy orientation will remain stable and continuous next year. Under this situation, domestic demand for machinery industry is expected to continue to rise.
Second, the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry are the key industries for national adjustment and revitalization. Relevant support policies will be introduced one after another, and the machinery industry will obviously benefit.
Third, the VAT transition is conducive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of machinery product users to purchase equipment, and is also conducive to the reduction of fixed asset investment costs by machinery companies themselves.
Fourth, the automobile purchase tax will be adjusted from “half the reduction†to “reduction of 7.5%†next year. Although the strength has weakened, with the adjustment of the distribution system and the increase of income, the market demand may be promoted by the policy. Will continue to increase.
Fifth, the agricultural machinery subsidy standard will continue to implement 30% of the total in 2010, but appropriately increase the single machine subsidy ceiling for some varieties. It is understood that the scope of subsidized agricultural machinery selection has also changed in 2010: 20-25 horsepower direct tractors, full feed self-propelled wheel harvesters with a feed volume greater than 2 kg are included in the selection range, milking machine Milk storage tanks, refrigerated tanks, etc. are also included in the catalogue. The amount of agricultural machinery subsidies is expected to continue to increase on the basis of 2009.
These economic policies have been introduced one year before and have shown that the government basically maintains the stability and continuity of economic policies that are conducive to the development of the industry. The whole industry will continue to benefit from this year.
(3) Fixed assets investment continues to operate at a high level Since the country launched the 4 trillion yuan investment plan to stimulate stable economic growth this year, the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment in urban and mechanical industries nationwide has maintained a high growth rate of 30% and 40% respectively. While investing in driving the economic recovery, it is also accumulating the risk of redundant construction and overcapacity. However, the data shows that the growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed down, the growth rate of regional investment has declined, the growth rate of different types of investment has generally declined, and the growth rate of funding sources has stabilized moderately. It is expected that the government may take corresponding measures in 2010. With the excessive growth of regulatory investment, fixed assets investment in the national and machinery industries will be difficult to maintain high growth of 30% and above 40%, but will still maintain a relatively fast growth rate.
According to the 4 trillion yuan investment plan, it is expected that there will be financial investment from the central government in 2010, which will drive the investment of the whole society to increase. The inertia of high investment growth will continue until 2010. At the same time, as the economy recovers, the local government's matching capital capacity will increase, which will also promote investment to maintain moderate growth. The growth of investment will directly drive the growth of consumption of machinery and equipment, and continue to provide impetus for the recovery and stable growth of the machinery industry economy.
(4) Demand in the machinery industry will continue to rise. Macroeconomic policies will continue to maintain stability and continuity. The national economy will continue to improve next year, and the investment in new projects will remain high, indicating that domestic demand for machinery industry will continue to rise in the coming year.
At the same time, under the background that all walks of life pay more attention to structural upgrading, the requirements for independent innovation of equipment will be more urgent, which will also help increase domestic demand.
In each sub-sector:
Some policies to expand domestic demand, such as car and motorcycle going to the countryside, car purchase tax reduction, etc., although the car purchase tax is adjusted from “half reduction†to “subtraction of 7.5%â€, the reduction rate has shrunk, but will continue to promote the car. Consumer demand in the industry, but the growth may slow down.
Agricultural machinery benefited from the subsidy policy. In 2009, the whole industry showed a steady and high growth against the market. Under the premise that the subsidy policy will continue in 2010 and the subsidy quota is expected to continue to increase, the demand for agricultural machinery will continue to improve and continue the high growth momentum. It can be expected. In particular, if the subsidy funds are in place in the first quarter, and catch up with the peak season of agricultural machinery purchase demand in the first quarter, it is expected that sales will continue to improve in the first quarter.
Driven by the rapid growth of the automobile and agricultural machinery industry, the internal combustion engine industry has already bottomed out and entered a period of high growth. The growth momentum in the third and fourth quarters of this year is rapid. Benefiting from preferential policies, next year's auto and agricultural machinery will also be both prosperous and demanding. Under its leadership, the internal combustion engine will continue its current growth momentum and continue to grow.
Driven by high investment in industrial projects, real estate investment recovery, and continued investment in infrastructure construction, construction machinery is expected to grow moderately, and the gap between various products will decrease. Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to decline slightly in 2010, the recovery of real estate and the growth of new construction area will be the main driving force. In addition, the export market of construction machinery products accounts for nearly one-third, while mining demand and export market will With the gradual recovery, construction machinery products such as excavators, concrete machinery, cranes, forklifts, loaders and bulldozers will have better development prospects.
Electrical equipment showed good resistance during the financial crisis. Electrical self-control equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment benefited from the national power grid bidding, the demand for new energy power equipment can still remain strong, and the combination of renewable energy and smart grid will be the top priority. The growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole industry in the past 6 years Leading the increase in performance, continuous high investment and unmatched output, these indicate that the electrical equipment industry will still have more room for development in the next few years. Specifically, the demand for conventional power generation equipment is declining, and the proportion of external demand is increasing. Demand for new energy equipment such as wind power and nuclear power, as well as power transmission and transformation, industrial and mining equipment are expected to grow.
The significant rebound in the machine tool industry is worth looking forward to. Benefiting from the rapid growth of downstream industries such as automobiles and construction machinery, machine tool orders have increased significantly, and machine tool production has rebounded significantly in the past two months. It is expected that with the further recovery of the macro economy, the machine tool industry will see a significant rebound in 2010. The production situation of high-end CNC machine tools and heavy-duty machine tools will continue to be optimistic under the support of major technology such as large aircraft and nuclear power, but the growth momentum of orders is expected to slow down.
Since the financial crisis of the basic components, the performance has maintained a steady growth trend after the bottoming out. From the perspective of the stability of its historical development, and benefiting from host products such as automobiles, construction machinery and other downstream demand, it is expected to rebound to the original high-speed growth level in 2010, at least significantly better than the current situation.
Heavy machinery is expected to usher in a recovery in 2010. Due to the significant recovery of key projects, heavy chemical industry and coal industry, it is expected that the heavy machinery industry will also pick up in 2010.
In addition, the demand for petrochemical and general equipment will remain stable, the demand for mining equipment is expected to be stable, and the import substitution for large castings and forgings will increase significantly.
(5) Factor supply will generate some new pressures for inflation expectations. The prices of major raw materials in the machinery industry are picking up. For example, steel prices will rise steadily in the future, although there will be no sharp rises. The price has risen by about 10%, but the structural contradiction of steel is prominent. The steel required for automobiles, engineering and power generation equipment will rise, which will bring cost pressure to the machinery industry. The prices of coal, electricity, oil and transportation have also increased to varying degrees, all of which have brought new pressure on the control costs of the machinery industry.
The loan interest rate will still be at a low level, which will help reduce the financing cost of the machinery industry.
(6) Impact of growth rate calculation base The fourth quarter of last year has been affected by the financial crisis, and the main economic indicators have been relatively low. Therefore, the year-on-year growth rate from the fourth quarter to the next year is relatively easy to improve.
3. The main difficulties still existing in the economic operation of the industry (1) The export situation of the industry will still be more severe. Although the financial crisis has subsided, the world economy is showing signs of recovery, but compared with the concerted actions that can be taken when the global response to the crisis Many western countries take into account their own interests. It is not easy to reach a consensus on how to promote the global economic recovery. It is more difficult to take concerted action again, and what is even more worrying is the expansion of trade protectionism against China, and China's machinery industry. The friction of import and export trade has occurred from time to time. Therefore, we should rely on ourselves to cultivate new economic growth points in the future, and we should not expect too much from relying on high-speed export growth to support economic development.
(2) The economic transformation of the industry is very difficult At present, the economic growth of the industry is mainly driven by the investment growth led by the government, and the driving force of the endogenous market still needs to be further cultivated, so the foundation of the economic recovery is not very stable. Now continue to overcome the challenges of the negative impact of the financial crisis and the difficulty of realizing its own economic transformation. The contradiction between the short-term goal and the long-term direction has greatly increased the difficulty of decision-making by relevant departments, the design of the policy mix, the grasp of the implementation rhythm, and regulation. The control of the strength puts high demands on it.
(3) Increasing difficulty in organizing production in the future With the in-depth implementation of equipment manufacturing, automobile industry adjustment and revitalization planning, in the future, in the process of continuing to cope with the financial crisis to stimulate economic growth, it will undoubtedly pay more attention to structural adjustment and economic growth. The change in the way, the intensity, density and rhythm of the government's relevant policies will change with the needs of adjustment. Enterprises must respond to the negative impact of the financial crisis, but also respond to the requirements of the adjustment of the economic structure of the industry. They must fully enjoy the government's continuous support policies, and constantly adjust and organize production tasks according to market demand. The difficulty of production will increase significantly.
4. Analysis and forecast of the development trend of machinery industry in 2010 (1) Analysis of future development situation In 2009, the machinery industry has stopped its downward trend and gradually recovered, especially since the third quarter, showing a clear upward trend. It is expected that from the end of 2009 to 2010, machinery The industry will continue its previous rebound. Coupled with the small base in 2009, it is foreseeable that the industry growth rate will increase in 2010, and the overall trend will be stable, high and low, but will be lower than the growth rate before the financial crisis. Affected by the base in 2009, the growth rate in the first half of 2010 was relatively high, especially because the base figure in the first quarter of 2009 was small, and the growth rate of industrial output value in the first quarter of 2010 will be higher, and then the base of 2009 will continue to increase. With the increase, the machinery industry will gradually enter a stage of steady development, steady and rising. One of the characteristics of the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2010 will be that the total demand will rise steadily, but due to the excessive growth of production capacity, the competition will become more intense; the pressure on enterprises will continue to increase, but the total production and sales of the whole industry will be based on this year. Continue to grow steadily; affected by excessive competition, the growth rate of benefits is expected to be lower than production and sales.
In addition, export flexibility is expected to be large in 2010. As the base is lower this year, the bottom is more obvious. Next year's exports may achieve growth under a small base. It will certainly be better than this year. The rapid growth of exports can be expected, but there are still many uncertain factors at home and abroad, and we cannot be blindly optimistic.
(2) The growth rate of the whole year of 2009 and 2010 is forecast. The cumulative annual growth rate of industrial output value and added value will increase by about 1% per month in the first 11 months of this year. The cumulative growth in January-November is about 14.09%. The growth rate will be above 15%.
The year-on-year growth rate of profits increased by 18 percentage points in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. In the third quarter, it increased by 14 percentage points from the second quarter. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate was 6.83%. It is expected that the annual growth rate will reach more than 10%.
In the 11 months before the foreign exchange earned, the decline was 23.27%. Considering that the base in the fourth quarter of last year fell sharply, it is expected that the annual decline will be significantly narrower than the previous 11 months, and the annual export growth will be around 20%.
It is estimated that the overall growth rate of production and sales of the machinery industry in 2010 will reach about 15%, the profit growth rate will reach about 10%, and the growth rate of export earnings may reach 15%.
Landscape Lights Professional's brass hadscape lights powered by 12V AC/DC voltage, this light is used to light retaining walls, barbecue fire pits, decks, landscape steps, flowerbeds, and masonry walls. The stainless steel plate is cuttable which lets you easily adjust the width to meet your needs by cutting along the dotted line on it. Use our brass hardscape lights to add ambient dramatic lighting in the ledgestone area.
We are a professional outdoor landscape lighting manufacturer. We focus on products, services, and customer ideas. What are your expectations for hardscape lights? Make it dimmable? Change the look? Use other material? Welcome to tell us what you think.
Hardscape Lights,12V led brass hardscape light,Low volt hardscape light,Hardscape & landscape lighting,Hardscape lighting transforms your property
Landscape Lights Pro , https://www.landscapelightspro.com