Although Shanghai Zinc once touched the 20,000 mark in the early years of 2011, it was also fleeting. Most of the time it was running below 20,000 for the most part. Compared to LME zinc, Shanghai zinc has obviously not been able to increase momentum. Taking into account the policy factors and the uncertainty of the recent trend of the US dollar index, Shanghai zinc is relatively sluggish before the Spring Festival, and it is expected that most of the time will be based on interval oscillations.
Domestic regulation and control policies have been severely regulated or further strengthened, and domestic stock markets and zinc and other commodity markets are once again under pressure. The People's Bank of China recently announced that the deposit reserve ratio for deposit-taking financial institutions will be raised by 0.5 percentage point from January 20, 2011. This is the first time that the People's Bank of China has raised the deposit reserve ratio since 2011, and it is also the 7th since last year. Times raised. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio of China's large financial institutions will reach a historical high of 19%, and the reserve requirement ratio for small and medium-sized financial institutions will also reach 15.5%. After this increase, the central bank may freeze the liquidity of the banking system by about 350 billion yuan at one time. Close to the first 9 weeks, the central bank's open market operations will have a net investment of 376 billion yuan. The tightness and looseness of the central bank's monetary policy tools suggests that "robust" monetary policy is being pulled.
In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics will release relevant economic data for December and the year on Thursday. It is not ruled out that the December CPI is still severe. The pressure of future policy tightening is still relatively large. The quality of the data may be the basis for whether the central bank will raise interest rates before the Spring Festival.
The recent US dollar index is very tangled. Although the recent trend of the US dollar index and some non-ferrous metals such as zinc divergence, but the high negative correlation between them is still the key to the future of the metal. According to the latest data released, the U.S. government still generated a deficit of 80 billion U.S. dollars in December 2010, basically in line with previous expectations. This is also the 27th consecutive month of the US government’s budget deficit, which is the longest record. The high “double deficit†lays the foundation for the continued weakness of the US dollar, while the ease of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis also puts pressure on the US dollar. In the near term, despite the fact that the US dollar is somewhat erratic, it still oscillates within its range. Overall, there has been no fundamental change in the weak structure of the US dollar and there have been no signs of breaking the upward range in the short term. Therefore, the medium and long-term support for basic metals such as zinc still has greater certainty.
The decrease in domestic willingness to consume has been gradually reduced due to the close of the year. At present, some downstream manufacturers have already taken a holiday in advance. There are not many buyers on the market, and the supply of goods in the spot market is relatively slow. At present, the domestic 0# zinc offer has a discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract of 1104, which is 700 yuan/t. Due to the unstable trend of Shanghai zinc in recent days, it has aggravated the market sentiment. Reflected in the ** market, Shanghai zinc price is a go three times, relative to the LME market, Shanghai zinc appears to be relatively weak with rising momentum.
Due to the tightening of domestic policies before the Spring Festival and the low consumption before the holiday, the recent zinc price is hard to show. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to whether LME zinc can break through at 2,500 US dollars. Before the effective price breakout of LME zinc price, investors continue to maintain their oscillatory thinking operation. The main contract oscillation range of Shanghai Zinc is 18500-20,000.
Domestic regulation and control policies have been severely regulated or further strengthened, and domestic stock markets and zinc and other commodity markets are once again under pressure. The People's Bank of China recently announced that the deposit reserve ratio for deposit-taking financial institutions will be raised by 0.5 percentage point from January 20, 2011. This is the first time that the People's Bank of China has raised the deposit reserve ratio since 2011, and it is also the 7th since last year. Times raised. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio of China's large financial institutions will reach a historical high of 19%, and the reserve requirement ratio for small and medium-sized financial institutions will also reach 15.5%. After this increase, the central bank may freeze the liquidity of the banking system by about 350 billion yuan at one time. Close to the first 9 weeks, the central bank's open market operations will have a net investment of 376 billion yuan. The tightness and looseness of the central bank's monetary policy tools suggests that "robust" monetary policy is being pulled.
In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics will release relevant economic data for December and the year on Thursday. It is not ruled out that the December CPI is still severe. The pressure of future policy tightening is still relatively large. The quality of the data may be the basis for whether the central bank will raise interest rates before the Spring Festival.
The recent US dollar index is very tangled. Although the recent trend of the US dollar index and some non-ferrous metals such as zinc divergence, but the high negative correlation between them is still the key to the future of the metal. According to the latest data released, the U.S. government still generated a deficit of 80 billion U.S. dollars in December 2010, basically in line with previous expectations. This is also the 27th consecutive month of the US government’s budget deficit, which is the longest record. The high “double deficit†lays the foundation for the continued weakness of the US dollar, while the ease of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis also puts pressure on the US dollar. In the near term, despite the fact that the US dollar is somewhat erratic, it still oscillates within its range. Overall, there has been no fundamental change in the weak structure of the US dollar and there have been no signs of breaking the upward range in the short term. Therefore, the medium and long-term support for basic metals such as zinc still has greater certainty.
The decrease in domestic willingness to consume has been gradually reduced due to the close of the year. At present, some downstream manufacturers have already taken a holiday in advance. There are not many buyers on the market, and the supply of goods in the spot market is relatively slow. At present, the domestic 0# zinc offer has a discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract of 1104, which is 700 yuan/t. Due to the unstable trend of Shanghai zinc in recent days, it has aggravated the market sentiment. Reflected in the ** market, Shanghai zinc price is a go three times, relative to the LME market, Shanghai zinc appears to be relatively weak with rising momentum.
Due to the tightening of domestic policies before the Spring Festival and the low consumption before the holiday, the recent zinc price is hard to show. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to whether LME zinc can break through at 2,500 US dollars. Before the effective price breakout of LME zinc price, investors continue to maintain their oscillatory thinking operation. The main contract oscillation range of Shanghai Zinc is 18500-20,000.
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