The state announced that from January 1, 2005, it will cancel the 8% export tax rebate on aluminum and impose export tariffs (tax rate is about 5%). The purpose of taxation is mainly to limit excessive development of high-energy-consuming industries.
Due to the overheated investment, the electrolytic aluminum industry has become one of the focuses of the national macro-control in 2004. According to statistics, in 2004, 1.47 million tons of planned construction capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry was halted, and another 900,000 tons of production capacity was postponed. The completed 1.2 million tons capacity was postponed and put into operation, and some of the existing production capacity was discontinued or semi-discontinued. The electrolytic aluminum industry The excessive investment momentum has been controlled to a certain degree. However, due to the excess production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in 2005, the shortage of raw materials for alumina and the shortage of power and other energy will continue. Therefore, the electrolytic aluminum industry is still the focus of the country's macroeconomic regulation and control.
The industry believes that the shortage of raw materials is currently the main problem facing China's metal production enterprises. Every year, China needs to import a large amount of raw materials such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other non-ferrous metal mines. Adjustment of the tax system will promote the integration of the metal industry and solve domestic metal products. The problem of shortages, among which the alumina industry is greatly affected. The levy of export tariffs will increase the export cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises and force the electrolytic aluminum enterprises to reduce their exports, thereby reducing the pressure on domestic energy and resources and realizing the sustainable development of the electrolytic aluminum industry. At the same time, export resistance will increase domestic electrolytic aluminum. In the competition of the market, some companies will have to cut production or suspend production. Weak enterprises will be forced to withdraw, and electrolytic aluminum companies will also accelerate their survival.
In 2004, the export tax rebate rate was reduced from 15% to 8%, which has had some impact on the import and export of aluminum. Most electrolytic aluminum plants are now in a loss situation, so the introduction of these measures will curb the growth of China’s electrolytic aluminum production and will also limit the volume of exports in 2005.
In the first 10 months of 2004, China exported 1.24 million tons of aluminum and aluminum alloys, with an import volume of 880,000 tons, and a net export volume of 360,000 tons, which is almost the same as the net export of 372,000 tons in 2003. . As manufacturers are all trying to catch shipments before the implementation of the tax policy, the net export volume at the end of 2004 is even greater. The net export of aluminum for the whole year is about 650,000 to 700,000 tons.
Recalling that the effect of halving the export tax rebate rate imposed on January 1, 2004 on imports and exports will help analyze the potential impact of tax revenues in 2005. Net exports increased sharply in November and December 2003 (5.1 million tons in November and 117,000 tons in December), while net exports began to drop sharply in the first half of 2005 (average 20,000 tons per month) from This point can be seen that lowering the export tax rebate rate has greatly reduced the import and export of aluminum.
However, China’s macro-control has caused a slowdown in the growth of aluminum demand, but output continues to increase. China's domestic primary aluminum market is in a surplus, which makes domestic aluminum prices perform much less than LME aluminum prices and encourages manufacturers to continue Export.
This seems to be the same situation once again. The elimination of export tax rebates and the increase of export tariffs will reduce exports in the first few months of 2005. Unless there is a strong rebound in demand, China's domestic primary aluminum market will be severely surplus, and aluminum prices will be downward. Pressure, which will also reduce the amount of imports.
At the same time, the reduction in exports will cause LME aluminum prices to rise, and this situation will be solved by itself. The difference between Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum will be amplified, so that the increase in exports will reduce imports and the surplus will be eased.
This is ostensibly a zero-sum game. Regardless of whether the tax is imposed or not, the volume of exports is the same. However, the fact may not be the case. China's lower aluminum prices in 2004 made those loss-making aluminum plants worse, forcing them to cut production or even shut down.
We believe that the elimination of export tax rebates and the levy of export taxes will reduce the net exports of China's electrolytic aluminum. There is no doubt that China will still be a net exporter of aluminum in 2005, but its net exports will be substantially reduced compared to 2004. In 2004, net exports were between 650 and 700,000 tons, and net exports in 2005 would be about 300,000 tons.
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