After the "531 New Deal" was introduced, the A-share PV sector was murdered.
Regarding the impact of the New Deal on the photovoltaic industry and the secondary market, I saw everyone asking, I will simply read it.
After the New Deal comes out, the market will quickly enter a period of freezing. Due to the recognition of the "630" record, and the construction of the power station is effective, there will be shipments in the short term. But the third quarter is different.
First, the manufacturing industry will enter the wait-and-see period, no longer purchase upstream, silicon stocks begin to accumulate, and the downstream has begun to enter the wait-and-see period. Waiting for the price to fall in the wait-and-see, there is no purchasing behavior. Therefore, the shipment of the photovoltaic industry in the third quarter is not smooth, and there must be sufficient expectations.
It is also because of the freezing period that prices will fall rapidly. As the current polysilicon wafer has reached 2.8 yuan, and 70% of the production capacity has been suspended.
According to the cost model comparison table, we can know that the low-quality silicon wafers used in this price are less than 80 yuan, which is no one to buy, so the first step is that the price of silicon material directly rushes to 80 yuan. .
After the price of silicon material has fallen rapidly, the price of the polysilicon film may continue to decrease under the extremely pessimistic market sentiment, but I think the limit price is 2.7 yuan, and it is difficult to continue to decline. That is to say, the polysilicon film link has been difficult to make room for profit.
Next is the battery segment. At present, the non-silicon cost of the battery is 0.35 yuan. The price of the battery will go directly to the cash cost of the manufacturer with higher marginal cost.
The value of the battery segment is 1.5 yuan multiplied by 1.16. 2.7 + 1.5 × 1.16 = 4.44 yuan, so in the third quarter, we can see 4.4 yuan polycrystalline battery.
The power per sheet is 4.58 watts, and the cost per watt is 4.4 ÷ 4.58 = 0.96 yuan. That is to say, if the price of the battery is calculated in terms of watts, it may fall below one yuan in the third quarter.
The component package cost is eight hairs, and the package cost after VAT is more than nine cents. Coupled with the cost of the front battery, the final component price may fall below two yuan, but I think it will remain above 1.9 yuan.
Under this price system, the whole industry will fall into a loss situation. Only a small number of excellent manufacturers can continue to make profits. I think Tongwei is a typical representative. However, GCL-Poly, which is dominated by polysilicon wafers and has a high cost of silicon materials, will face very severe challenges.
I think that the biggest impact of the New Deal is the household distributed dealer. Because the first five months of distributed installed capacity has reached ten GW, meaning that there will be no new indicators in the next seven months.
Let's talk about the secondary market again.
After the third quarter of freezing, demand will slowly rise in the fourth quarter. But we can also see that a large number of low-cost production capacity is still being released.
The latest conference call between Tongwei and Longji shares also indicates that the pace of expansion of these leading companies will not stop.
That is to say, although the demand has picked up in the fourth quarter, the capacity is being squeezed and will increase further. Moreover, the newly added capacity is ultra-low-cost capacity, so for the next four quarters, I think the price may stabilize, but it is difficult to rise.
In fact, for the photovoltaic industry, as the cost of related products continues to decline, as long as the price of the product is stable in one position, the profit of the enterprise can be greatly improved after a period of time.
So after the rapid decline in the third quarter, it may be low in the next period of time. Moreover, due to the different quality, the price difference of silicon material is widened, which will bring great challenges to the profit of the leading wafer companies on the current route.
Therefore, we must prepare for the performance of related PV listed companies, and some PV listed companies may face a cash flow crisis, because the cash flow of manufacturing business can not cover management costs, sales costs and financial costs.
I don’t comment on which companies, mainly those companies with high debt ratios, polysilicon wafers and polycrystalline batteries, and older production lines. And this wave of industry baptism, it is likely that some of the former leading companies went bankrupt.
So I think the emotional risks of the industry are not adequately released. From the perspective of the secondary market, it is not a good time to intervene.
Regarding the price difference of different quality silicon materials.
Although the demand for the next period of time is freezing, the supply of silicon is generally surplus, but there will be structural contradictions in supply. High-quality silicon materials used in monocrystalline silicon wafers are in short supply, while low-quality silicon materials used in polycrystalline silicon wafers are oversupplied.
Due to the domestic silicon materials manufacturers that can meet the high-quality use requirements, the main products are New Energy, New Energy, and Tongwei. Therefore, the two domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers need to rely on imported silicon materials.
In order to allow overseas silicon production capacity to operate normally, the price of high-quality silicon materials needs to remain above 100 yuan. Otherwise, WACKER and South Korea's oci may threaten to stop production.
Therefore, the high-quality silicon materials used in monocrystalline silicon wafers, even in the bleak three quarters, are difficult to fall below the $100 position.
In contrast, the low-quality silicon materials used in polycrystalline silicon wafers are mostly produced by more than 20 domestic wafer manufacturers. After inquiring about a circle, there has been a large inventory accumulation.
Since the beginning of April, the yield of polycrystalline silicon wafers has been more than 50%, and the yield of polycrystalline silicon wafers is now close to 70%. This makes the first-quality silicon stocks of those companies continue to accumulate.
Due to the completion of the implementation in May, the inventory of silicon materials in the previous period, the inventory of the silicon material plant is still relatively good. But for the next period of time, the challenge is very serious, because the wafer factory has been shut down and there is no procurement. In order to renew the demand for silicon materials, it is necessary to significantly reduce the price.
Therefore, I think the possibility that the price of low-quality silicon materials used in polycrystalline silicon wafers will fall below 80 yuan is very large.
Therefore, there will be a significant differentiation in the price of different quality silicon materials. Now I judge that the price difference between the two will be greater than 20 yuan, or even close to 30 yuan.
The core logic for making such judgments is that the price difference of 30 yuan is the limit that two leading companies of monocrystalline silicon wafers can bear. If the price difference of silicon materials is greater than 30 yuan, the two leading companies of monocrystalline silicon wafers will also be threatened by the suspension of production.
Since the high-quality silicon material is not available, the price difference is widened. So for the next period of time, polysilicon wafers can breathe with a lower price of silicon.
The duration of this respite is about two to three quarters. With the capacity of up to 200,000 tons of silicon material, it will gradually be put into production in the next three quarters, and the peak of production capacity will be ushered in the first quarter and second quarter of 2019.
This part of the new silicon material has superior production capacity. At the beginning of the design, the production line has been specially optimized for the use of monocrystalline silicon wafers. Various companies have investigated and claimed that about 70% of the silicon material can satisfy the single The use of crystalline silicon wafers.
Simple calculations, I think that in the second quarter of next year, the structural mutual economic contradiction of silicon materials will be alleviated. With the convergence of the silicon material price difference, the monocrystalline silicon wafer will re-form a round of rolling of polycrystalline silicon wafers.
According to the statistics of an expert from Jingsheng Electromechanical, there are currently 8,900 single crystal furnaces in China and above, and the number of single crystal furnaces under construction is as high as 3,000. By the end of this year, the total number of single crystal furnaces in the industry The number will reach more than 12,000 units.
Moreover, these single crystal furnaces are large-volume single crystal furnaces that can use a large thermal field of 26 inches or more. With the upgrade of this year's thermal field upgrade, the average monthly output of this part of the single crystal furnace will reach 8 to 9 MW.
So at this time next year, the industry's monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity will come. 12,000 × 8MW = 96,000 MW = 96 GW, due to the most optimistic expectations, the global demand in 2019 is only 110 GW. The market share of monocrystalline silicon wafers is likely to reach 80%. This is faster than any friend can imagine.
It must be said that Longji shares have made outstanding contributions in this wave of industry baptism. But as far as Longji shares themselves are concerned, its profits will be under pressure.
Although this year's operating income will increase by more than 50% over last year, operating profit is still declining. According to the current study, after repeated research and consideration of power plant profits, I believe that Longji’s profit this year will be at a level of 2 billion.
Tongwei shares benefited from the high price of silicon materials in the first half of this year, as well as the lucrative battery, battery capacity and Other factors, the performance will still rise year-on-year. But there will be a profit challenge in the second half of the year.
By 2019, thanks to the release of up to 50,000 tons of ultra-low-cost high-quality silicon material capacity, in the leading companies in the photovoltaic industry, I think Tongwei shares will be the first to reverse.
From the perspective of the industrial cycle, after the cycle, the PV industry will have fewer and fewer cycles of baptism.
Because the development of photovoltaics will not need to rely on subsidies in the future, the cyclical characteristics of the photovoltaic industry will become weaker without subsidies. On the contrary, because the price of components continues to decline, the cost of electricity and electricity continues to decrease, and more is reflected in long-term growth.
After this round of industry baptism, by 2019, we can see that the 60-pack 330w single-crystal double-sided half-chip components have been industrialized and popular, and the price will be as low as 2.2 yuan per watt, with the tracking axis system, the power of the ground power station. The cost is expected to be reduced by more than 40%. Therefore, the power generation side is close to the parity Internet.
After this round of industry baptism, many upstream links will usher in an era of oligopoly.
Silicon material link: Big new energy, Tongwei shares, Xinte Energy three companies will occupy 70% of the world market share.
Silicon wafer link: Central shares, Longji shares will occupy 60% of the world market share.
However, the battery segment has not yet seen the pattern of oligopoly. I am currently seeing the battery segment, and there will be a new track in the next three years. That is, hit (heterojunction solar cells) already has the company's ambitious layout related technology, and bring relevant technology, once mature , to expand production capacity by 30 GW.
Therefore, there may be oligopolistic companies in the future battery segment. Then the question is coming. With such a scale, who will be the company that will expand production capacity in the future? You can guess it yourself.
In the component link, due to the low technical barriers, the possibility of industry aggregation is temporarily unavailable.
After this round of industry baptism, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a professional era.
The traditional photovoltaic giants may become channel dealers and distributors. The old photovoltaic giants such as Artes, JA Solar, Trina Solar, etc., because of their high debt, will feel more in catching up with a new wave of technology. The harder it is. In the future, we can only find a place to survive by virtue of strong brand power and strong overseas distribution channels. Artes is more likely to turn to the power station.
This round of industry baptism, countless old companies will fall, and countless new companies will rise.
Once the leader is no longer the leader, where is the new leader hiding? In my own mind, the outstanding company in the next round of industrial cycle, I have chosen, silently waiting for the price to fall through, then quietly Buy, patiently waiting for him to become a real ten times.
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