Abstract In 2014, China's machine tool industry was under pressure and the downward pressure was further increased. According to the China Machine Tool Industry Association's industry information statistics key contact network and customs import and export statistics, the following is an analysis of the industry operations and market conditions in 2014. one...
In 2014, China's machine tool industry was under pressure and the downward pressure was further increased. According to the China Machine Tool Industry Association's industry information statistics key contact network and customs import and export statistics, the following is an analysis of the industry operations and market conditions in 2014. I. General overview of industry operations in 2014
1. Demand continues to slump, sales are low
From January to December 2014, new orders for metalworking machine tools decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, and orders in hand decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, new orders for metal cutting machine tools decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and orders for orders fell by 1.5% year-on-year; new orders for metal forming machine tools increased by 0.4% year-on-year, and orders for orders increased by 1.8% year-on-year.
From January to December 2014, the sales revenue of the whole industry increased by 2.0% year-on-year. The sales revenue of metal processing machine tools increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Among them, metal cutting machine tool product sales revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year; metal forming machine tool product sales revenue increased by 2.4%.
2. Production gradually shrinks, inventory levels drop slightly
From January to December 2014, the output of metal processing machine tools decreased by 2.0% year-on-year. Among them, the output of gold cutting machine tools decreased by 1.7%, and the output of metal forming machine tools decreased by 3.3%.
From January to December 2014, the inventory of finished products of the whole industry decreased by 6.5% year-on-year. Inventories of finished metal processing machine tools decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. Among them, the gold cutting machine tool decreased by 0.6%, and the metal forming machine tool increased by 3.1%.
3. The profit is rising at a low level, and the loss is at a high level.
From January to December 2014, the total profit of the whole industry increased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the total profit of metal processing machine tools increased by 8.1%. Among them, Jinqiu machine tools increased by 14.9% year-on-year, and metal forming machine tools increased by 2.9%.
In December 2014, the loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 31.9%, and the loss-making enterprises in metal processing machine tools accounted for 36.7%. Among them, the gold cutting machine tool is 42.7%, and the metal forming machine tool is 4.3%.
4. Exports maintain steady and rapid growth
From January to December 2014, the total export value was US$ 11.63 billion, an increase of 22.1% year-on-year. Among them, the export value of metal processing machine tools was 3.40 billion US dollars, up 18.8% year-on-year; the export value of metal cutting machine tools was 2.27 billion US dollars, up 20.6% year-on-year; the export value of metal forming machine tools was 1.12 billion US dollars, up 15.3% year-on-year. The top three exporters were cutting tools ($2.62 billion), metal cutting machines ($2.27 billion), and abrasives ($2.18 billion).
Exports went up, the United States ranked first ($1.66 billion), an increase of 11.6% year-on-year; Vietnam rose rapidly, ranking second ($1.14 billion), up 231.7% year-on-year; Japan ranked third ($970 million) ), an increase of 24.6% year-on-year.
Among export enterprises, the proportion of private enterprises continued to increase (55.5%), while the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises (31.5%) and state-owned (including collective) enterprises (13.0%) declined. The eastern coastal areas such as East China (US$5.01 billion), South China (US$2.15 billion) and North China (US$2.06 billion) ranked the top three, up 12.2%, 42.6% and 14.7% respectively. The trade pattern reflects an increase in the proportion of general trade (85.0%) and a decrease in the proportion of foreign investment (13.4%).
Second, the overall market overview in 2014
In recent years, the Chinese economy has gradually entered the "new normal", and the growth rate, economic structure and growth momentum have all changed significantly. Affected by this, China's machine tool market has also undergone new changes, showing new features.
1. Market characteristics - "decline total, structural upgrade"
Since 2010, the cumulative growth rate of domestic fixed asset investment has continued to decline. The cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment in 2014 was 15.7%, down 8.8 percentage points from 2010. As the domestic machine tool market demand mainly depends on investment, the decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment directly leads to the continuous decline of the domestic machine tool market. In 2014, China's machine tool market consumption was US$31.83 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year.
On the other hand, the domestic machine tool market structure is also rapidly upgrading. In 2014, the proportion of imported machine tools in all machine tool consumption was 34.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over 2010. In 2014, the domestic CNC machine tool consumption accounted for 76.7%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points over 2010. In the future, China's machine tool market structure will be upgraded to the direction of automation, customization and shifting.
2. The latest changes - "power conversion, market demand changes"
The rapid development of the heavy chemical industry in China's economy has come to an end, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment related to it has been declining, which in turn has affected the sales of related machine tool products in this field. A more typical example, since 2011, heavy machine tool production and imports have experienced negative growth. In 2014, the average production and sales level of domestic heavy-duty machine tool manufacturers was only 51.0% in 2011. In 2014, the import volume of major domestic heavy-duty machine tools was equivalent to 75.0% in 2011.
China's economic power is changing. Since 2011, consumption has gradually surpassed investment to become the primary driving force for economic growth. Affected by this, the production and consumption of machine tools for consumer goods manufacturing is significantly better than investment-related machine tools. For example, investment-related metal cutting machine tool consumption has declined, while metal forming machine tools for consumer goods manufacturing have continued to grow. In addition, in 2014, the import volume of vertical machining centers (141.0%) and production (37.3% YoY) for the manufacturing of consumer electronics products such as smartphones and tablets continued to grow at a high speed.
3. Imports show rapid rebound growth
From January to December 2014, the total import value was 17.78 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.8%. Among them, the import value of metal processing machine tools was 10.83 billion US dollars, up 7.6% year-on-year; the import value of metal cutting machine tools was 8.84 billion US dollars, up 11.1% year-on-year; the import value of metal forming machine tools was 1.99 billion US dollars, down 5.8% year-on-year. The top three importers are metal cutting machine tools ($8.84 billion), metal forming machine tools ($1.99 billion), and numerical control devices ($1.65 billion). Overall, the import growth rate in 2014 was much higher than the same period last year (-20.2%).
Among the sources of imports, Japan ranked first ($5.16 billion), up 23.6% year-on-year; Germany ranked second ($4.29 billion), down 0.8% year-on-year; Taiwan ranked third ($2.31 billion), up 18.0 year-on-year. %.
In the import enterprises, the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises and state-owned (including collective) enterprises was 63.6%, 20.2% and 16.2% respectively. Compared with the same period in 2013, the proportion of private enterprises increased by 2.3 percentage points, and the proportion of state-owned (including collective) enterprises decreased by 2.9 percentage points. Imported enterprises concentrated in the eastern coastal areas such as East China ($8.365 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year), North China (3.434 billion US dollars, up 10.8% year-on-year) and South China ($3.06 billion, up 24.5% year-on-year). The trade pattern reflects an increase in the proportion of general trade (71.7%) and a decline in the proportion of foreign investment (27.5%).
Third, 2015 expectations
Based on the analysis of major economic data and situation in China and the industry, the downward pressure on the economy is expected to increase further in 2015. However, with the further reform of the economic system, especially the reform of the investment and financing system and the implementation of the regional development strategy, investment growth is expected to accelerate, and infrastructure investment and service investment will accelerate. At the same time, after several years of structural adjustment, domestic and foreign machine tool enterprises have gradually adapted to the changes in market demand structure, and the ability to tap potential market demand has been greatly enhanced. Therefore, in 2015, the import of machine tool products is expected to maintain a small increase, and the sales of domestic machine tools are expected to be the same as in 2014.
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